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Bundesliga

Referee: T Welz

Hoffenheim

S T U T T

1–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,2

3,0

Scored

1,7

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 36%

39%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

83%

56%

Both score Ø 78%

89%

67%

Average goals

3,9

3,4

Scored

1,9

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,93 xG 1,14

67% Possession 33%

20 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 8. · Heidenheim 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	18	15	3	0	+36	+20.0	48
2	Bayern Munich	18	14	2	2	+37	+38.4	44
3	Stuttgart	18	11	1	6	+15	+20.7	34
4	RB Leipzig	18	10	3	5	+19	+16.0	33
5	Dortmund	18	9	6	3	+12	+5.5	33
6	Ein Frankfurt	19	8	7	4	+8	-3.6	31
7	Freiburg	18	8	4	6	-4	+2.8	28
8	Hoffenheim	18	7	3	8	-2	-4.0	24
9	Heidenheim	18	6	4	8	-7	-16.3	22
10	Augsburg	18	5	6	7	-7	-5.6	21
11	Wolfsburg	18	6	3	9	-7	-4.9	21
12	M'gladbach	18	5	5	8	-3	-2.8	20
13	Werder Bremen	18	5	5	8	-6	-8.7	20
14	Bochum	18	4	8	6	-14	-8.1	20
15	Union Berlin	17	4	2	11	-15	-7.7	14
16	Mainz	18	1	8	9	-16	-2.1	11
17	FC Koln	18	2	5	11	-22	-20.1	11
18	Darmstadt	18	2	5	11	-24	-19.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	1	1	+28	+23.3	25
2	Leverkusen	9	8	1	0	+23	+16.8	25
3	Stuttgart	9	7	1	1	+19	+18.3	22
4	RB Leipzig	10	6	2	2	+16	+12.5	20
5	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	3	1	+8	+2.4	18
6	Freiburg	9	5	3	1	+5	+8.3	18
7	Heidenheim	9	5	2	2	+3	-4.4	17
8	Dortmund	9	5	2	2	+2	+4.4	17
9	Bochum	9	3	5	1	+4	+5.2	14
10	M'gladbach	10	4	2	4	+2	+2.0	14
11	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.8	14
12	Wolfsburg	8	4	1	3	+3	-2.2	13
13	Augsburg	9	3	4	2	+1	-0.9	13
14	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	-1.3	10
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-2	+1.5	8
16	FC Koln	9	1	3	5	-8	-8.4	6
17	Darmstadt	10	1	3	6	-9	-4.7	6
18	Mainz	8	1	2	5	-7	+1.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	9	7	2	0	+13	+3.2	23
2	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+9	+15.2	19
3	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+10	+1.1	16
4	Hoffenheim	10	5	1	4	+0	-5.5	16
5	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.5	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.0	13
7	Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	-4	+2.4	12
8	Freiburg	9	3	1	5	-9	-5.5	10
9	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-8	-4.6	8
10	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-10	-2.7	8
11	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-5	-4.7	6
12	Werder Bremen	9	1	3	5	-7	-7.9	6
13	Mainz	10	0	6	4	-9	-3.9	6
14	Bochum	9	1	3	5	-18	-13.4	6
15	Heidenheim	9	1	2	6	-10	-11.9	5
16	FC Koln	9	1	2	6	-14	-11.8	5
17	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-15	-14.8	5
18	Union Berlin	9	1	1	7	-11	-6.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.