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Bundesliga

Referee: P Ittrich

Bayern Munich

T T S U S

8–1

Full-time

Mainz

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 40%

71%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

88%

42%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

58%

Average goals

3,9

2,4

Scored

2,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

6,41 xG 0,84

59% Possession 41%

25 Shots 13

12 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 2. · Mainz 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	24	20	4	0	+45	+26.7	64
2	Bayern Munich	24	17	3	4	+37	+41.4	54
3	Stuttgart	25	17	2	6	+26	+26.3	53
4	Dortmund	24	12	8	4	+18	+10.1	44
5	RB Leipzig	24	13	4	7	+22	+17.0	43
6	Ein Frankfurt	24	9	10	5	+7	-4.6	37
7	Hoffenheim	24	9	6	9	-1	-1.8	33
8	Werder Bremen	24	8	6	10	-4	-6.7	30
9	Freiburg	24	8	6	10	-12	-0.6	30
10	Augsburg	24	7	8	9	-2	-4.0	29
11	Heidenheim	24	7	7	10	-8	-19.2	28
12	M'gladbach	24	6	8	10	-4	-5.4	26
13	Wolfsburg	24	6	7	11	-9	-2.9	25
14	Union Berlin	25	7	4	14	-18	-8.2	25
15	Bochum	24	5	10	9	-21	-17.5	25
16	FC Koln	24	3	8	13	-23	-24.6	17
17	Mainz	24	2	10	12	-19	-0.4	16
18	Darmstadt	24	2	7	15	-34	-25.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	10	2	0	+27	+20.2	32
2	Stuttgart	13	10	2	1	+26	+22.3	32
3	Bayern Munich	12	10	1	1	+31	+25.2	31
4	RB Leipzig	12	8	2	2	+20	+14.2	26
5	Dortmund	12	7	2	3	+6	+9.3	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	5	1	+8	+3.3	20
7	Freiburg	12	5	5	2	+3	+8.2	20
8	M'gladbach	12	5	3	4	+5	+4.6	18
9	Werder Bremen	12	5	3	4	+2	+1.0	18
10	Bochum	12	4	6	2	+2	+1.4	18
11	Heidenheim	12	5	3	4	+1	-5.5	18
12	Augsburg	12	4	5	3	+1	-1.0	17
13	Union Berlin	12	5	2	5	-4	-1.2	17
14	Wolfsburg	12	4	4	4	+2	-1.2	16
15	Hoffenheim	12	3	4	5	-2	+4.4	13
16	Mainz	12	2	4	6	-7	+4.0	10
17	FC Koln	12	2	3	7	-9	-9.2	9
18	Darmstadt	13	1	3	9	-18	-8.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	10	2	0	+18	+6.5	32
2	Bayern Munich	12	7	2	3	+6	+16.2	23
3	Dortmund	12	5	6	1	+12	+0.8	21
4	Stuttgart	12	7	0	5	+0	+4.0	21
5	Hoffenheim	12	6	2	4	+1	-6.2	20
6	RB Leipzig	12	5	2	5	+2	+2.9	17
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	5	4	-1	-7.9	17
8	Augsburg	12	3	3	6	-3	-3.0	12
9	Werder Bremen	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.7	12
10	Heidenheim	12	2	4	6	-9	-13.7	10
11	Freiburg	12	3	1	8	-15	-8.8	10
12	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-11	-1.7	9
13	M'gladbach	12	1	5	6	-9	-10.0	8
14	Union Berlin	13	2	2	9	-14	-7.0	8
15	FC Koln	12	1	5	6	-14	-15.4	8
16	Darmstadt	11	1	4	6	-16	-17.3	7
17	Bochum	12	1	4	7	-23	-18.8	7
18	Mainz	12	0	6	6	-12	-4.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.