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Pro League

Referee: W Smet

Dender

U T S U T

0–1

Full-time

Genk

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dender Genk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 53%

32%

74%

Points per game

1,3

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

63%

74%

Both score Ø 66%

63%

68%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,1

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,53 xG 1,49

39% Possession 61%

13 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

5 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dender 8. · Genk 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Genk	19	14	3	2	+17	+18.5	45
2	Anderlecht	18	11	5	2	+24	+9.2	38
3	Club Brugge	18	11	5	2	+22	+19.6	38
4	Antwerp	18	10	7	1	+21	+1.9	37
5	St. Gilloise	19	10	6	3	+15	+19.4	36
6	Gent	19	8	8	3	+15	+1.0	32
7	Cercle Brugge	22	6	8	8	-11	-2.8	26
8	Dender	19	6	7	6	-4	-9.1	25
9	Standard	18	7	4	7	-9	-6.6	25
10	Charleroi	18	6	6	6	+1	+3.4	24
11	Mechelen	20	5	5	10	-5	-2.7	20
12	St Truiden	23	4	7	12	-21	-10.9	19
13	Westerlo	18	4	4	10	-5	-1.6	16
14	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	19	2	9	8	-8	-4.5	15
15	Beerschot VA	23	2	8	13	-24	-20.0	14
16	Kortrijk	23	4	2	17	-28	-14.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Genk	10	9	1	0	+15	+13.3	28
2	St. Gilloise	9	7	0	2	+10	+15.9	21
3	Club Brugge	9	6	2	1	+16	+14.3	20
4	Antwerp	9	6	2	1	+16	+5.3	20
5	Gent	9	6	2	1	+15	+4.0	20
6	Anderlecht	9	5	3	1	+11	+3.6	18
7	Cercle Brugge	11	4	5	2	-1	+3.6	17
8	Standard	9	5	1	3	+1	-1.9	16
9	Charleroi	10	4	3	3	+3	+4.0	15
10	St Truiden	12	3	6	3	-2	-1.0	15
11	Mechelen	10	3	4	3	+4	+1.1	13
12	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	9	2	6	1	+3	+3.1	12
13	Beerschot VA	11	2	6	3	-4	-7.6	12
14	Kortrijk	12	4	0	8	-7	-2.3	12
15	Westerlo	9	3	2	4	+4	+9.2	11
16	Dender	9	2	4	3	+0	-2.9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Anderlecht	9	6	2	1	+13	+5.6	20
2	Club Brugge	9	5	3	1	+6	+5.3	18
3	Antwerp	9	4	5	0	+5	-3.4	17
4	Genk	9	5	2	2	+2	+5.1	17
5	St. Gilloise	10	3	6	1	+5	+3.6	15
6	Dender	10	4	3	3	-4	-6.2	15
7	Gent	10	2	6	2	+0	-3.1	12
8	Charleroi	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.7	9
9	Cercle Brugge	11	2	3	6	-10	-6.4	9
10	Standard	9	2	3	4	-10	-4.7	9
11	Mechelen	10	2	1	7	-9	-3.8	7
12	Westerlo	9	1	2	6	-9	-10.9	5
13	St Truiden	11	1	1	9	-19	-9.8	4
14	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	10	0	3	7	-11	-7.6	3
15	Beerschot VA	12	0	2	10	-20	-12.4	2
16	Kortrijk	11	0	2	9	-21	-12.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.