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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Ortiz

Alaves

T T U T U

1–0

Full-time

Villarreal

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 34%

19%

48%

Points per game

0,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

64%

Both score Ø 67%

58%

76%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,1

1,9

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,07 xG 2,85

31% Possession 69%

5 Shots 24

3 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

11 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 19. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	26	18	3	5	+46	+33.1	57
2	Ath Madrid	26	16	8	2	+27	+19.9	56
3	Real Madrid	26	16	6	4	+30	+24.2	54
4	Ath Bilbao	26	13	9	4	+21	+16.7	48
5	Villarreal	25	12	8	5	+13	+15.6	44
6	Betis	26	10	8	8	+1	+6.5	38
7	Vallecano	26	9	9	8	+1	+2.6	36
8	Celta	27	10	6	11	-1	+8.3	36
9	Mallorca	26	10	6	10	-7	-0.8	36
10	Sociedad	26	10	4	12	-4	-0.6	34
11	Osasuna	26	7	12	7	-5	-7.7	33
12	Sevilla	26	8	9	9	-5	-6.9	33
13	Girona	26	9	5	12	-5	-3.1	32
14	Getafe	26	7	9	10	+0	-6.4	30
15	Espanol	25	7	6	12	-12	-20.0	27
16	Leganes	27	6	9	12	-16	-21.9	27
17	Las Palmas	26	6	6	14	-14	-24.9	24
18	Valencia	26	5	9	12	-16	-9.2	24
19	Alaves	26	5	8	13	-11	-1.0	23
20	Valladolid	26	4	4	18	-43	-24.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	14	10	4	0	+17	+18.3	34
2	Real Madrid	12	10	1	1	+20	+18.9	31
3	Celta	14	9	2	3	+10	+6.0	29
4	Ath Bilbao	13	8	4	1	+18	+12.5	28
5	Barcelona	12	9	0	3	+24	+23.5	27
6	Osasuna	14	6	6	2	+5	+1.7	24
7	Betis	13	6	5	2	+6	+13.0	23
8	Espanol	13	6	4	3	+3	-4.8	22
9	Villarreal	12	5	5	2	+9	+8.3	20
10	Girona	13	6	2	5	+4	+6.0	20
11	Sociedad	13	6	2	5	+2	+4.1	20
12	Mallorca	14	5	5	4	-1	-2.6	20
13	Vallecano	13	5	4	4	+1	+8.5	19
14	Sevilla	13	5	4	4	-3	-0.1	19
15	Valencia	13	5	3	5	+1	+1.4	18
16	Leganes	13	5	2	6	-6	-7.2	17
17	Getafe	13	3	7	3	+2	+2.1	16
18	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-3	+1.6	13
19	Las Palmas	13	3	4	6	-4	-6.6	13
20	Valladolid	13	3	4	6	-12	-6.2	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	9	3	2	+22	+9.6	30
2	Villarreal	13	7	3	3	+4	+7.3	24
3	Real Madrid	14	6	5	3	+10	+5.2	23
4	Ath Madrid	12	6	4	2	+10	+1.6	22
5	Ath Bilbao	13	5	5	3	+3	+4.2	20
6	Vallecano	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.0	17
7	Mallorca	12	5	1	6	-6	+1.8	16
8	Betis	13	4	3	6	-5	-6.5	15
9	Sevilla	13	3	5	5	-2	-6.8	14
10	Getafe	13	4	2	7	-2	-8.5	14
11	Sociedad	13	4	2	7	-6	-4.6	14
12	Girona	13	3	3	7	-9	-9.1	12
13	Las Palmas	13	3	2	8	-10	-18.3	11
14	Alaves	14	2	4	8	-8	-2.6	10
15	Leganes	14	1	7	6	-10	-14.7	10
16	Osasuna	12	1	6	5	-10	-9.4	9
17	Celta	13	1	4	8	-11	+2.3	7
18	Valencia	13	0	6	7	-17	-10.5	6
19	Espanol	12	1	2	9	-15	-15.2	5
20	Valladolid	13	1	0	12	-31	-18.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.