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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Brentford

S T S S U

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 40%

41%

39%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

67%

68%

Both score Ø 69%

67%

71%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,83 xG 1,32

60% Possession 40%

13 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 12. · Aston Villa 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	29	21	7	1	+42	+40.9	70
2	Arsenal	27	15	9	3	+28	+20.2	54
3	Nott'm Forest	28	15	6	7	+12	+1.7	51
4	Man City	28	14	5	9	+15	+12.6	47
5	Chelsea	27	13	7	7	+16	+15.6	46
6	Brighton	28	12	10	6	+6	+2.5	46
7	Newcastle	27	13	5	9	+8	+9.9	44
8	Bournemouth	27	12	7	8	+13	+12.8	43
9	Fulham	28	11	9	8	+3	+6.7	42
10	Aston Villa	28	11	9	8	-5	+1.2	42
11	Crystal Palace	28	10	9	9	+3	+8.2	39
12	Brentford	27	11	5	11	+5	+0.8	38
13	Tottenham	27	10	3	14	+14	-0.4	33
14	Man United	27	9	6	12	-6	-5.9	33
15	West Ham	27	9	6	12	-15	-9.1	33
16	Everton	27	7	11	9	-4	-4.4	32
17	Wolves	27	6	4	17	-19	-12.9	22
18	Ipswich	28	3	8	17	-32	-30.1	17
19	Leicester	27	4	5	18	-36	-27.4	17
20	Southampton	28	2	3	23	-48	-42.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	2	1	+20	+19.9	35
2	Arsenal	13	8	4	1	+16	+14.5	28
3	Nott'm Forest	14	8	4	2	+13	+5.6	28
4	Aston Villa	15	7	7	1	+7	+11.7	28
5	Man City	13	8	2	3	+11	+11.6	26
6	Chelsea	13	7	4	2	+11	+12.8	25
7	Brighton	14	6	6	2	+5	+4.6	24
8	Brentford	14	7	3	4	+4	+4.2	24
9	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+7	+6.4	23
10	Bournemouth	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
11	Fulham	14	5	5	4	-1	+2.1	20
12	Man United	14	6	1	7	-4	-0.5	19
13	Everton	14	4	6	4	+3	+1.2	18
14	Tottenham	14	5	2	7	+4	+0.1	17
15	Crystal Palace	15	4	5	6	-5	+6.9	17
16	West Ham	14	5	2	7	-9	-6.5	17
17	Wolves	13	3	1	9	-9	-5.3	10
18	Leicester	14	2	3	9	-16	-11.9	9
19	Ipswich	14	1	4	9	-20	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	13	1	1	11	-28	-23.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	10	5	0	+22	+21.0	35
2	Arsenal	14	7	5	2	+12	+5.7	26
3	Nott'm Forest	14	7	2	5	-1	-3.8	23
4	Crystal Palace	13	6	4	3	+8	+1.3	22
5	Bournemouth	14	6	4	4	+6	+4.8	22
6	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+4	+4.6	22
7	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+1	-2.1	22
8	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+5	+2.8	21
9	Man City	15	6	3	6	+4	+1.0	21
10	Newcastle	14	6	3	5	+1	+3.6	21
11	Tottenham	13	5	1	7	+10	-0.5	16
12	West Ham	13	4	4	5	-6	-2.6	16
13	Brentford	13	4	2	7	+1	-3.4	14
14	Man United	13	3	5	5	-2	-5.4	14
15	Everton	13	3	5	5	-7	-5.6	14
16	Aston Villa	13	4	2	7	-12	-10.6	14
17	Wolves	14	3	3	8	-10	-7.6	12
18	Ipswich	14	2	4	8	-12	-19.2	10
19	Leicester	13	2	2	9	-20	-15.5	8
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-20	-19.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.