Bundesliga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Dortmund
Augsburg
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayern Munich
|
24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | +52 | +42.8 | 61 |
| 2 |
Leverkusen
|
24 | 15 | 8 | 1 | +27 | +22.0 | 53 |
| 3 |
Mainz
|
25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | +16 | +2.1 | 44 |
| 4 |
Ein Frankfurt
|
24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | +13 | +6.6 | 42 |
| 5 |
Freiburg
|
24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | -2 | +0.1 | 40 |
| 6 |
RB Leipzig
|
24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | +6 | -5.2 | 38 |
| 7 |
Wolfsburg
|
24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | +10 | -2.2 | 37 |
| 8 |
M'gladbach
|
25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | +1 | -5.8 | 37 |
| 9 |
Stuttgart
|
24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +5 | +8.7 | 36 |
| 10 |
Dortmund
|
24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | +7 | +10.6 | 35 |
| 11 |
Augsburg
|
24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -8 | -7.4 | 32 |
| 12 |
Werder Bremen
|
24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -13 | -2.0 | 30 |
| 13 |
Hoffenheim
|
24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -15 | -12.5 | 25 |
| 14 |
Union Berlin
|
24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -15 | -6.1 | 24 |
| 15 |
St Pauli
|
24 | 6 | 3 | 15 | -11 | -8.1 | 21 |
| 16 |
Holstein Kiel
|
24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | -24 | -16.4 | 16 |
| 17 |
Heidenheim
|
24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | -23 | -10.5 | 15 |
| 18 |
Bochum
|
24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -26 | -16.8 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
G. Kobel
G
Yan Couto
D
N. Schlotterbeck
D
R. Bensebaini
D
S. Özcan
M
P. Groß
M
K. Adeyemi
M
J. Brandt
M
J. Gittens
M
S. Guirassy
F
Coach: N. Kovač
F. Dahmen
G
C. Matsima
D
J. Gouweleeuw
D
C. Zesiger
D
M. Wolf
M
E. Rexhbeçaj
M
F. Onyeka
M
D. Giannoulis
M
F. Jensen
F
A. Claude-Maurice
F
P. Tietz
F
Coach: J. Thorup
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Dortmund
Lille
St Pauli
Dortmund
Dortmund
Union Berlin
Dortmund
Sp Lisbon
Bochum
Dortmund
D Aytekin · 111 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.