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Bundesliga
Referee: D Aytekin
Dortmund
T U S S U
0–1
Full-time
Augsburg
T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Augsburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 17%
17%
17%
Average goals
2,5
1,0
Scored
2,0
0,7
Conceded
0,5
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 38%
42%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
67%
54%
Both score Ø 59%
71%
46%
Average goals
3,5
2,6
Scored
1,9
1,1
Conceded
1,6
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,11 xG 0,20
72% Possession 28%
14 Shots 6
1 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
12 Corners 3
4 Offside 4
6 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 10. · Augsburg 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 24 19 4 1 +52 +42.8 61
2 Leverkusen 24 15 8 1 +27 +22.0 53
3 Mainz 25 13 5 7 +16 +2.1 44
4 Ein Frankfurt 24 12 6 6 +13 +6.6 42
5 Freiburg 24 12 4 8 -2 +0.1 40
6 RB Leipzig 24 10 8 6 +6 -5.2 38
7 Wolfsburg 24 10 7 7 +10 -2.2 37
8 M'gladbach 25 11 4 10 +1 -5.8 37
9 Stuttgart 24 10 6 8 +5 +8.7 36
10 Dortmund 24 10 5 9 +7 +10.6 35
11 Augsburg 24 8 8 8 -8 -7.4 32
12 Werder Bremen 24 8 6 10 -13 -2.0 30
13 Hoffenheim 24 6 7 11 -15 -12.5 25
14 Union Berlin 24 6 6 12 -15 -6.1 24
15 St Pauli 24 6 3 15 -11 -8.1 21
16 Holstein Kiel 24 4 4 16 -24 -16.4 16
17 Heidenheim 24 4 3 17 -23 -10.5 15
18 Bochum 24 3 6 15 -26 -16.8 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Augsburg
23′
J. Gouweleeuw 0–1
M. Wolf
Half-time 0–1
Julian Brandt ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
52′
Serhou Guirassy 🟨
57′
57′
🟨 Elvis Rexhbeçaj
58′
🔁 S. Essende
↦ P. Tietz
58′
🔁 K. Jakić
↦ E. Rexhbeçaj
M. Beier 🔁
↦ R. Bensebaini
63′
J. Ryerson 🔁
↦ Yan Couto
63′
Salih Özcan ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
64′
70′
🟨 Frank Onyeka
74′
🔁 A. Maier
↦ A. Claude-Maurice
74′
🔁 M. Kömür
↦ F. Jensen
M. Sabitzer 🔁
↦ P. Groß
75′
J. Duranville 🔁
↦ J. Gittens
75′
81′
🔁 N. Banks
↦ M. Wolf
82′
🟨 Noahkai Banks
84′
🟨 Kristijan Jakić
W. Anton 🔁
↦ K. Adeyemi
92′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobel G
2 Yan Couto D
23 E. Can D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
5 R. Bensebaini D
6 S. Özcan M
13 P. Groß M
27 K. Adeyemi M
10 J. Brandt M
43 J. Gittens M
9 S. Guirassy F
Bench (8)
14 M. Beier
26 J. Ryerson
20 M. Sabitzer
16 J. Duranville
3 W. Anton
33 A. Meyer
7 G. Reyna
25 N. Süle

Coach: N. Kovač

Augsburg

3-4-2-1
1 F. Dahmen G
5 C. Matsima D
6 J. Gouweleeuw D
16 C. Zesiger D
11 M. Wolf M
8 E. Rexhbeçaj M
19 F. Onyeka M
13 D. Giannoulis M
24 F. Jensen F
20 A. Claude-Maurice F
21 P. Tietz F
Bench (9)
9 S. Essende
17 K. Jakić
10 A. Maier
36 M. Kömür
40 N. Banks
31 K. Schlotterbeck
15 S. Mounié
22 N. Labrović
41 F. Meiser

Coach: J. Thorup

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,53
U
4,39
B ✓
6,02
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,71
U2,5 ✓
2,13
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Aytekin · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.