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Bundesliga

Referee: Harm Osmers

M'gladbach

U T S T T

4–0

Full-time

Augsburg

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

60%

Both score Ø 43%

33%

53%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,99 xG 1,79

52% Possession 48%

12 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 12. · Augsburg 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	13	2	0	+44	+34.1	41
2	Dortmund	16	9	6	1	+14	+8.7	33
3	RB Leipzig	15	9	2	4	+11	+7.3	29
4	Leverkusen	16	9	2	5	+10	+9.4	29
5	Stuttgart	16	9	2	5	+6	+2.6	29
6	Hoffenheim	15	8	3	4	+9	+0.4	27
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	5	4	+0	+1.4	26
8	Freiburg	16	6	5	5	+0	+6.5	23
9	Union Berlin	16	6	4	6	-3	-0.2	22
10	FC Koln	16	4	5	7	-2	-2.1	17
11	Werder Bremen	15	4	5	6	-10	-8.7	17
12	M'gladbach	15	4	4	7	-6	-2.2	16
13	Hamburg	16	4	4	8	-10	-6.1	16
14	Wolfsburg	15	4	3	8	-5	-5.2	15
15	Augsburg	15	4	2	9	-11	-9.9	14
16	St Pauli	15	3	3	9	-13	-11.1	12
17	Heidenheim	16	3	3	10	-21	-11.4	12
18	Mainz	16	1	6	9	-13	-13.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+25	+16.9	22
2	RB Leipzig	7	6	0	1	+13	+6.3	18
3	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+9	+5.7	17
4	Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+9	+9.7	16
5	Stuttgart	7	5	1	1	+1	+0.2	16
6	Freiburg	8	4	3	1	+6	+9.0	15
7	Hamburg	8	4	2	2	+4	+1.5	14
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+3	+3.3	14
9	Union Berlin	9	3	4	2	+2	+2.3	13
10	Hoffenheim	7	4	0	3	+4	+0.1	12
11	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	-4	+0.6	11
12	Augsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.7	10
13	Heidenheim	9	2	3	4	-9	-7.0	9
14	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	+3	+3.0	8
15	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-7	-3.3	7
16	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-9	-5.0	6
17	Wolfsburg	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.1	5
18	Mainz	8	0	3	5	-6	-2.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+19	+17.2	19
2	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+5	+3.0	16
3	Hoffenheim	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.3	15
4	Stuttgart	9	4	1	4	+5	+2.4	13
5	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+1	-0.3	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	3	2	-3	-1.9	12
7	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
8	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+3	+2.8	10
9	Wolfsburg	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.2	10
10	FC Koln	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.1	9
11	Union Berlin	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.5	9
12	Freiburg	8	2	2	4	-6	-2.6	8
13	Werder Bremen	8	1	3	4	-6	-9.3	6
14	Mainz	8	1	3	4	-7	-10.8	6
15	St Pauli	8	1	2	5	-6	-7.8	5
16	Augsburg	7	1	1	5	-5	-4.2	4
17	Heidenheim	7	1	0	6	-12	-4.4	3
18	Hamburg	8	0	2	6	-14	-7.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.