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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Villarreal

U S U S S

1–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 9/8 matches

Win Ø 60%

56%

63%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

56%

50%

Both score Ø 53%

56%

50%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 6

1 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 5

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 5

16 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 2. · Real Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sociedad	9	6	2	1	+16	20
2	Villarreal	9	5	3	1	+4	18
3	Ath Madrid	7	5	2	0	+15	17
4	Real Madrid	8	5	1	2	+5	16
5	Granada	8	4	2	2	-2	14
6	Cadiz	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Elche	8	3	3	2	-1	12
8	Betis	9	4	0	5	-5	12
9	Barcelona	7	3	2	2	+7	11
10	Valencia	9	3	2	4	+1	11
11	Getafe	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	-1	11
13	Sevilla	7	3	1	3	+1	10
14	Ath Bilbao	8	3	0	5	-2	9
15	Alaves	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Eibar	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Levante	9	1	4	4	-5	7
18	Huesca	10	0	7	3	-8	7
19	Celta	9	1	4	4	-9	7
20	Valladolid	9	1	3	5	-7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Villarreal	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+11	10
3	Sociedad	5	3	1	1	+7	10
4	Granada	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Getafe	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Valencia	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Barcelona	4	2	1	1	+5	7
8	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Real Madrid	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Betis	4	2	0	2	+0	6
13	Valladolid	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Elche	4	1	2	1	-2	5
15	Alaves	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Levante	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Huesca	4	0	3	1	-2	3
18	Celta	4	1	0	3	-7	3
19	Cadiz	4	0	2	2	-4	2
20	Eibar	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cadiz	5	4	0	1	+2	12
2	Sociedad	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Real Madrid	5	3	1	1	+2	10
4	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Elche	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Eibar	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Betis	5	2	0	3	-5	6
8	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	-2	5
9	Barcelona	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	Sevilla	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Osasuna	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Alaves	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Celta	5	0	4	1	-2	4
14	Levante	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Huesca	6	0	4	2	-6	4
16	Granada	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Valencia	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	Ath Bilbao	5	1	0	4	-4	3
19	Getafe	3	0	2	1	-3	2
20	Valladolid	4	0	1	3	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.