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La Liga
Referee: Eduardo Prieto
Valencia
S T U U S
2–1
Full-time
Alaves
U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Alaves
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,2
1,7
Scored
1,5
0,5
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,7
This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 29%
29%
29%
Points per game
1,3
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 22%
29%
14%
Both score Ø 36%
57%
14%
Average goals
3,0
1,6
Scored
1,4
0,6
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,1
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%
11 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 7
2 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Valencia 11. · Alaves 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 8 5 3 0 +8 18
2 Granada 8 4 2 2 +5 14
3 Ath Madrid 7 4 2 1 +3 14
4 Barcelona 7 4 1 2 +6 13
5 Sociedad 7 4 1 2 +5 13
6 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 +3 13
7 Ath Bilbao 7 3 3 1 +4 12
8 Villarreal 7 3 2 2 +7 11
9 Levante 8 3 2 3 +0 11
10 Eibar 8 2 3 3 +0 9
11 Valencia 7 2 3 2 -1 9
12 Valladolid 7 2 3 2 -1 9
13 Betis 8 2 3 3 -5 9
14 Osasuna 7 1 5 1 -1 8
15 Alaves 7 2 2 3 -3 8
16 Getafe 7 1 4 2 -1 7
17 Celta 7 1 3 3 -5 6
18 Espanol 7 1 2 4 -8 5
19 Mallorca 7 1 1 5 -8 4
20 Leganes 8 0 2 6 -8 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Valencia Alaves
Daniel Wass 🟨
14′
15′
🟨 Manu García
15′
🟨 Rubén Duarte
21′
🔁 Pere Pons
↦ Pina
1–0 M. Gómez
Rodrigo
27′
Half-time 1–0
Manu Vallejo 🔁
↦ Rodrigo
59′
M. Diakhaby 🔁
↦ Ferran Torres
70′
73′
🔁 Aleix Vidal
↦ Ximo Navarro
82′
🟨 Antonio Sivera
83′
🔁 Borja Sainz
↦ Rodrigo Ely
2–0 Dani Parejo
83′
89′
Lucas Pérez 2–1
Sobrino 🔁
↦ D. Cheryshev
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Valencia

4-4-2
13 Jasper Cillessen G
18 Daniel Wass D
24 Ezequiel Garay D
5 Gabriel Paulista D
3 Jaume Costa D
20 Ferrán Torres M
10 Dani Parejo M
17 Francis Coquelin M
11 Denis Cheryshev M
19 Rodrigo F
22 Maximiliano Gómez F
Bench (7)
1 Jaume Doménech
12 Mouctar Diakhaby
2 Thierry Correia
7 Gonçalo Guedes
16 Kang-in Lee
23 Rubén Sobrino
15 Manu Vallejo

Coach: Celades

Alaves

4-4-2
13 Antonio Sivera G
23 Ximo Navarro D
5 Víctor Laguardia D
4 Rodrigo Ely D
3 Rubén Duarte D
24 Oliver Burke M
8 Tomás Pina M
19 Manu García M
11 Luis Rioja M
9 Joselu F
7 Lucas Pérez F
Bench (7)
31 Aritz Castro
6 Lisandro Magallán
21 Martín Aguirregabiria
18 Aleix Vidal
20 Pere Pons
29 Borja Sainz
10 John Guidetti

Coach: Asier Garitano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,52
U
4,10
B
6,81
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,11
U2,5
1,74
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Eduardo Prieto · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,39 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.