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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Arsenal

S S T T S

3–1

Full-time

Burnley

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 37%

64%

Points per game

2,2

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

2,1

0,7

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,95 xG 0,32

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 4. · Burnley 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	0	2	+20	+13.8	27
2	Tottenham	12	8	2	2	+9	+0.3	26
3	Liverpool	11	7	3	1	+14	+12.2	24
4	Arsenal	11	7	3	1	+14	+10.5	24
5	Aston Villa	11	7	1	3	+10	+5.9	22
6	Newcastle	11	6	2	3	+16	+12.1	20
7	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+3.1	18
8	Man United	11	6	0	5	-4	-3.2	18
9	Brentford	11	4	4	3	+5	+6.4	16
10	Chelsea	11	4	3	4	+5	+10.4	15
11	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-3	-3.3	15
12	Wolves	12	4	3	5	-4	-2.8	15
13	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-2	-4.8	14
14	Nott'm Forest	11	3	4	4	-3	-5.3	13
15	Fulham	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.9	12
16	Everton	11	3	2	6	-4	+2.8	11
17	Luton	11	1	3	7	-11	-10.3	6
18	Bournemouth	11	1	3	7	-18	-12.3	6
19	Burnley	11	1	1	9	-19	-11.1	4
20	Sheffield United	11	1	1	9	-21	-16.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	5	5	0	0	+16	+6.9	15
2	Man City	5	5	0	0	+13	+2.9	15
3	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+12	+10.4	15
4	Newcastle	6	5	0	1	+11	+7.9	15
5	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+6.8	14
6	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+3	-0.7	12
7	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.2	11
8	Nott'm Forest	5	2	3	0	+3	+0.3	9
9	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+2	+3.0	9
10	Man United	6	3	0	3	-3	-1.4	9
11	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-3	-2.2	8
12	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.3	7
13	Fulham	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.3	6
14	Chelsea	6	1	2	3	-1	+3.9	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.1	5
16	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-6	-6.1	5
17	Everton	6	1	1	4	-1	+4.8	4
18	Sheffield United	6	1	1	4	-10	-8.7	4
19	Luton	5	0	2	3	-3	-1.0	2
20	Burnley	6	0	0	6	-14	-5.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.0	14
2	Man City	6	4	0	2	+7	+10.9	12
3	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.4	10
4	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.6	10
5	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	-2	-2.2	10
6	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.9	9
7	Man United	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.8	9
8	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.4	7
9	Brighton	5	2	1	2	-1	+0.8	7
10	Wolves	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.6	7
11	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.5	7
12	Everton	5	2	1	2	-3	-2.0	7
13	Aston Villa	6	2	1	3	-6	-1.0	7
14	Fulham	6	1	3	2	-5	-5.6	6
15	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	+5	+4.3	5
16	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-5	-5.3	4
17	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-6	-5.6	4
18	Luton	6	1	1	4	-8	-9.3	4
19	Bournemouth	5	0	1	4	-12	-6.2	1
20	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-11	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.