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Premier League

Referee: S Barrott

Bournemouth

T S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Burnley

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 6%

11%

Points per game

0,3

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

2,2

2,6

Goal diff per game

-1,6

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,11 xG 0,83

44% Possession 56%

13 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 19. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	10	8	2	0	+13	+5.0	26
2	Man City	9	7	0	2	+12	+9.7	21
3	Arsenal	9	6	3	0	+10	+8.2	21
4	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.5	20
5	Aston Villa	9	6	1	2	+10	+3.3	19
6	Newcastle	9	5	1	3	+15	+10.4	16
7	Brighton	9	5	1	3	+4	+2.6	16
8	Man United	9	5	0	4	-2	+0.2	15
9	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+0	-4.9	14
10	Brentford	10	3	4	3	+4	+6.5	13
11	Chelsea	10	3	3	4	+2	+7.1	12
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-5	-3.5	12
13	Wolves	9	3	2	4	-4	-3.2	11
14	Fulham	9	3	2	4	-7	-7.5	11
15	Nott'm Forest	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.8	10
16	Everton	9	2	1	6	-5	+2.4	7
17	Luton	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.4	5
18	Burnley	9	1	1	7	-16	-10.7	4
19	Bournemouth	9	0	3	6	-14	-11.5	3
20	Sheffield United	9	0	1	8	-17	-13.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	4	4	0	0	+14	+5.1	12
2	Newcastle	5	4	0	1	+10	+7.4	12
3	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+9	+7.6	12
4	Man City	4	4	0	0	+8	+1.8	12
5	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.5	12
6	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+4	+4.1	11
7	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.5	10
8	Man United	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.6	9
9	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.2	7
10	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+1	+3.2	6
11	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.1	6
12	Fulham	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.6	6
13	Chelsea	6	1	2	3	-1	+3.9	5
14	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.1	5
15	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.3	4
16	Everton	5	1	0	4	-1	+4.6	3
17	Bournemouth	5	0	2	3	-7	-6.4	2
18	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	+1.1	1
19	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-11	-8.4	1
20	Burnley	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+7	+2.5	14
2	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.1	10
3	Man City	5	3	0	2	+4	+7.9	9
4	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.2	8
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
6	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.4	7
7	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
8	West Ham	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.7	7
9	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.8	7
10	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.4	7
11	Brighton	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
12	Man United	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.4	6
13	Fulham	5	1	2	2	-5	-4.9	5
14	Newcastle	4	1	1	2	+5	+3.0	4
15	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.9	4
16	Everton	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.2	4
17	Burnley	4	1	1	2	-4	-5.0	4
18	Luton	5	1	1	3	-6	-7.5	4
19	Bournemouth	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.1	1
20	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-5.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.