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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

Darmstadt

S S T T T

0–0

Full-time

Mainz

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Darmstadt Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,7

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

3,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 15%

20%

10%

Points per game

0,7

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 85%

90%

80%

Both score Ø 75%

80%

70%

Average goals

4,6

3,5

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

3,2

2,4

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,49 xG 0,67

56% Possession 44%

9 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Darmstadt 15. · Mainz 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	10	9	1	0	+20	+9.7	28
2	Bayern Munich	10	8	2	0	+31	+23.3	26
3	Stuttgart	10	7	0	3	+14	+12.7	21
4	Dortmund	10	6	3	1	+5	+4.0	21
5	RB Leipzig	10	6	2	2	+16	+4.1	20
6	Hoffenheim	10	6	0	4	+3	-0.7	18
7	Ein Frankfurt	10	4	5	1	+6	+1.2	17
8	Freiburg	10	4	2	4	-6	-0.1	14
9	M'gladbach	11	3	4	4	+0	-0.2	13
10	Wolfsburg	11	4	1	6	-5	-0.6	13
11	Augsburg	10	3	3	4	-3	+0.6	12
12	Werder Bremen	10	3	1	6	-4	-4.1	10
13	Heidenheim	10	3	1	6	-7	-11.8	10
14	Bochum	10	1	5	4	-14	-9.7	8
15	Darmstadt	10	2	1	7	-18	-11.8	7
16	Union Berlin	10	2	0	8	-11	-2.1	6
17	Mainz	10	1	3	6	-13	-5.5	6
18	FC Koln	10	1	2	7	-14	-8.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	5	5	0	0	+12	+7.8	15
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+20	+14.7	13
3	Dortmund	6	4	1	1	+1	+3.3	13
4	Stuttgart	5	4	0	1	+13	+8.6	12
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+13	+3.9	11
6	Wolfsburg	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.0	10
7	Freiburg	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.4	10
8	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	3	0	+3	+2.8	9
9	Werder Bremen	5	3	0	2	+2	-0.1	9
10	Heidenheim	5	3	0	2	+1	-5.1	9
11	Augsburg	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.0	8
12	M'gladbach	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.2	7
13	FC Koln	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.5	4
14	Darmstadt	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.5	4
15	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.7	4
16	Bochum	4	0	3	1	-2	+0.8	3
17	Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	-0.6	3
18	Union Berlin	5	1	0	4	-8	-3.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	5	5	0	0	+7	-0.1	15
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+11	+8.5	13
3	Leverkusen	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.8	13
4	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	+3	+0.2	9
5	Stuttgart	5	3	0	2	+1	+4.1	9
6	Dortmund	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.8	8
7	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+3	-1.6	8
8	M'gladbach	5	1	3	1	+0	-0.4	6
9	Bochum	6	1	2	3	-12	-10.5	5
10	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.4	4
11	Freiburg	5	1	1	3	-8	-2.6	4
12	Union Berlin	5	1	0	4	-3	+1.3	3
13	Wolfsburg	6	1	0	5	-9	-2.6	3
14	Darmstadt	5	1	0	4	-14	-10.3	3
15	Mainz	5	0	2	3	-8	-4.9	2
16	Werder Bremen	5	0	1	4	-6	-4.1	1
17	Heidenheim	5	0	1	4	-8	-6.7	1
18	FC Koln	5	0	1	4	-11	-7.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.