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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero

Vallecano

T S S T T

1–2

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 13/14 matches

Win Ø 37%

31%

43%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

46%

36%

Both score Ø 63%

62%

64%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,18 xG 0,71

47% Possession 53%

7 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 7

6 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 13. · Ath Bilbao 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	11	1	3	+27	+15.8	34
2	Real Madrid	14	10	3	1	+19	+15.0	33
3	Ath Madrid	15	9	5	1	+18	+14.0	32
4	Villarreal	14	7	5	2	+4	+7.5	26
5	Mallorca	15	7	3	5	+2	+3.1	24
6	Ath Bilbao	14	6	5	3	+7	+6.4	23
7	Girona	15	6	4	5	+2	+4.5	22
8	Osasuna	14	6	4	4	-3	-5.1	22
9	Betis	14	5	5	4	+0	+3.6	20
10	Sociedad	14	5	3	6	+0	+2.6	18
11	Celta	15	5	3	7	-4	+4.3	18
12	Sevilla	14	5	3	6	-5	-2.8	18
13	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-1	-0.4	16
14	Las Palmas	15	4	3	8	-6	-14.4	15
15	Leganes	15	3	6	6	-6	-11.9	15
16	Alaves	15	4	2	9	-9	-5.4	14
17	Getafe	15	2	7	6	-3	-0.5	13
18	Espanol	14	4	1	9	-12	-14.5	13
19	Valencia	13	2	4	7	-8	-8.6	10
20	Valladolid	15	2	3	10	-22	-13.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+13	+11.6	21
2	Ath Madrid	7	5	2	0	+11	+12.7	17
3	Osasuna	8	5	2	1	+5	+2.8	17
4	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+14	+11.1	15
5	Ath Bilbao	8	4	3	1	+6	+3.9	15
6	Celta	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.7	14
7	Betis	7	4	2	1	+4	+7.5	14
8	Girona	7	4	1	2	+5	+5.8	13
9	Villarreal	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.0	12
10	Espanol	7	4	0	3	+1	-1.7	12
11	Mallorca	8	3	3	2	+1	+0.6	12
12	Sevilla	7	4	0	3	-1	+1.6	12
13	Getafe	8	2	5	1	+3	+5.5	11
14	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+0	-2.3	11
15	Leganes	7	3	1	3	-1	-1.2	10
16	Valencia	6	2	2	2	+2	-0.5	8
17	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.1	8
18	Sociedad	7	2	1	4	-2	+3.0	7
19	Las Palmas	7	1	3	3	-2	-4.3	6
20	Valladolid	8	1	3	4	-7	-5.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	6	1	2	+13	+4.8	19
2	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.3	15
3	Villarreal	7	4	2	1	+2	+5.5	14
4	Real Madrid	6	3	3	0	+6	+3.4	12
5	Mallorca	7	4	0	3	+1	+2.5	12
6	Sociedad	7	3	2	2	+2	-0.4	11
7	Girona	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.3	9
8	Las Palmas	8	3	0	5	-4	-10.1	9
9	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.5	8
10	Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.4	8
11	Sevilla	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.4	6
12	Betis	7	1	3	3	-4	-3.8	6
13	Leganes	8	0	5	3	-5	-10.7	5
14	Osasuna	6	1	2	3	-8	-8.0	5
15	Celta	7	1	1	5	-8	-0.4	4
16	Alaves	8	1	0	7	-9	-3.1	3
17	Valladolid	7	1	0	6	-15	-7.5	3
18	Getafe	7	0	2	5	-6	-6.0	2
19	Valencia	7	0	2	5	-10	-8.0	2
20	Espanol	7	0	1	6	-13	-12.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.