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La Liga

Referee: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez

Vallecano

S S T T S

1–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

60%

40%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

20%

80%

Both score Ø 40%

80%

Average goals

2,8

3,6

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,6

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,21 xG 1,64

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 8

6 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Vallecano 7. · Villarreal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	1	0	+10	+7.3	16
2	Girona	6	5	1	0	+9	+3.3	16
3	Real Madrid	5	5	0	0	+7	+4.1	15
4	Ath Bilbao	6	4	1	1	+7	+5.6	13
5	Valencia	6	3	1	2	+3	+0.5	10
6	Sociedad	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.2	9
7	Vallecano	5	3	0	2	-2	+1.0	9
8	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+6	+2.9	7
9	Osasuna	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.7	7
10	Cadiz	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.4	7
11	Getafe	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.6	7
12	Betis	5	2	1	2	-5	-3.9	7
13	Villarreal	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.2	6
14	Alaves	6	2	0	4	-4	-2.7	6
15	Mallorca	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.9	5
16	Sevilla	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.5	4
17	Celta	6	1	1	4	-4	-0.6	4
18	Granada	5	1	0	4	-7	-6.3	3
19	Las Palmas	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.5	2
20	Almeria	6	0	2	4	-6	+1.3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.0	9
2	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.1	9
3	Sociedad	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.5	8
4	Cadiz	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
5	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.0	7
6	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.5	6
7	Valencia	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.6	6
8	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.8	6
9	Alaves	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.2	6
10	Betis	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
11	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
12	Villarreal	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.0	3
13	Sevilla	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
14	Granada	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.3	3
15	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	-5	-1.0	3
16	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
17	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
18	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.9	1
19	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-5	+2.0	1
20	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Ath Bilbao	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.1	7
3	Girona	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.2	7
4	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.4	7
5	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.0	6
6	Osasuna	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
7	Ath Madrid	3	1	1	1	+4	+1.5	4
8	Celta	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.1	4
9	Valencia	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.0	4
10	Mallorca	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.1	4
11	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.2	3
12	Betis	3	1	0	2	-6	-3.9	3
13	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
14	Almeria	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
15	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
16	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.7	0
17	Granada	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
18	Alaves	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0
19	Getafe	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.6	0
20	Cadiz	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.