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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Ortiz

Villarreal

U S S S U

2–2

Full-time

Girona

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Girona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

2,3

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 13/14 matches

Win Ø 49%

54%

43%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

77%

43%

Both score Ø 64%

85%

43%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,9

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,02 xG 0,54

36% Possession 64%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 4. · Girona 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	11	1	3	+27	+15.8	34
2	Ath Madrid	15	9	5	1	+18	+14.0	32
3	Real Madrid	13	9	3	1	+17	+12.8	30
4	Villarreal	13	7	4	2	+4	+6.0	25
5	Mallorca	15	7	3	5	+2	+3.1	24
6	Ath Bilbao	14	6	5	3	+7	+6.4	23
7	Osasuna	14	6	4	4	-3	-5.1	22
8	Girona	14	6	3	5	+2	+6.0	21
9	Betis	14	5	5	4	+0	+3.6	20
10	Sociedad	14	5	3	6	+0	+2.6	18
11	Celta	15	5	3	7	-4	+4.3	18
12	Sevilla	14	5	3	6	-5	-2.8	18
13	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-1	-0.4	16
14	Las Palmas	15	4	3	8	-6	-14.4	15
15	Leganes	15	3	6	6	-6	-11.9	15
16	Alaves	15	4	2	9	-9	-5.4	14
17	Getafe	14	2	7	5	-1	+1.7	13
18	Espanol	14	4	1	9	-12	-14.5	13
19	Valencia	13	2	4	7	-8	-8.6	10
20	Valladolid	15	2	3	10	-22	-13.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+11	+9.4	18
2	Ath Madrid	7	5	2	0	+11	+12.7	17
3	Osasuna	8	5	2	1	+5	+2.8	17
4	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+14	+11.1	15
5	Ath Bilbao	8	4	3	1	+6	+3.9	15
6	Celta	8	4	2	2	+4	+4.7	14
7	Betis	7	4	2	1	+4	+7.5	14
8	Girona	7	4	1	2	+5	+5.8	13
9	Espanol	7	4	0	3	+1	-1.7	12
10	Mallorca	8	3	3	2	+1	+0.6	12
11	Sevilla	7	4	0	3	-1	+1.6	12
12	Getafe	8	2	5	1	+3	+5.5	11
13	Villarreal	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.5	11
14	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+0	-2.3	11
15	Leganes	7	3	1	3	-1	-1.2	10
16	Valencia	6	2	2	2	+2	-0.5	8
17	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.1	8
18	Sociedad	7	2	1	4	-2	+3.0	7
19	Las Palmas	7	1	3	3	-2	-4.3	6
20	Valladolid	8	1	3	4	-7	-5.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	6	1	2	+13	+4.8	19
2	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.3	15
3	Villarreal	7	4	2	1	+2	+5.5	14
4	Real Madrid	6	3	3	0	+6	+3.4	12
5	Mallorca	7	4	0	3	+1	+2.5	12
6	Sociedad	7	3	2	2	+2	-0.4	11
7	Las Palmas	8	3	0	5	-4	-10.1	9
8	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.5	8
9	Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.4	8
10	Girona	7	2	2	3	-3	+0.2	8
11	Sevilla	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.4	6
12	Betis	7	1	3	3	-4	-3.8	6
13	Leganes	8	0	5	3	-5	-10.7	5
14	Osasuna	6	1	2	3	-8	-8.0	5
15	Celta	7	1	1	5	-8	-0.4	4
16	Alaves	8	1	0	7	-9	-3.1	3
17	Valladolid	7	1	0	6	-15	-7.5	3
18	Getafe	6	0	2	4	-4	-3.8	2
19	Valencia	7	0	2	5	-10	-8.0	2
20	Espanol	7	0	1	6	-13	-12.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.