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La Liga

Referee: Javier Iglesias

Vallecano

T S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,8

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 43%

33%

53%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

56%

47%

Both score Ø 54%

61%

47%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,36 xG 0,43

31% Possession 69%

15 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

9 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 12. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	36	27	4	5	+48	+14.4	85
2	Real Madrid	37	24	5	8	+39	+18.2	77
3	Ath Madrid	36	22	7	7	+36	+16.4	73
4	Sociedad	36	20	8	8	+16	+8.1	68
5	Villarreal	36	19	6	11	+20	+10.9	63
6	Betis	36	16	8	12	+4	+0.5	56
7	Ath Bilbao	36	14	8	14	+5	+3.8	50
8	Osasuna	36	14	8	14	-5	-11.2	50
9	Girona	36	13	10	13	+5	-5.8	49
10	Sevilla	37	13	10	14	-6	+6.8	49
11	Mallorca	36	13	8	15	-6	-5.8	47
12	Vallecano	36	12	10	14	-6	-4.2	46
13	Valencia	36	11	7	18	-3	-0.6	40
14	Celta	36	10	10	16	-10	-3.0	40
15	Almeria	36	11	6	19	-16	-9.7	39
16	Getafe	36	9	11	16	-12	-4.6	38
17	Cadiz	36	9	11	16	-24	-5.7	38
18	Valladolid	36	11	5	20	-30	-14.9	38
19	Espanol	36	8	11	17	-17	-6.3	35
20	Elche	36	4	9	23	-38	-7.3	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	14	3	1	+30	+11.2	45
2	Real Madrid	18	13	4	1	+28	+15.8	43
3	Ath Madrid	18	12	3	3	+25	+14.8	39
4	Villarreal	18	12	2	4	+18	+10.2	38
5	Sociedad	18	10	5	3	+9	+9.3	35
6	Girona	18	10	3	5	+10	+2.0	33
7	Almeria	18	10	2	6	+7	+1.2	32
8	Mallorca	18	9	5	4	+7	+0.9	32
9	Betis	18	9	4	5	+8	+2.2	31
10	Osasuna	18	10	1	7	+2	-1.9	31
11	Vallecano	18	8	5	5	+5	+0.2	29
12	Valencia	18	8	4	6	+8	+3.6	28
13	Ath Bilbao	18	8	3	7	+8	+0.4	27
14	Valladolid	18	8	3	7	-4	-1.1	27
15	Sevilla	19	7	5	7	-1	+11.9	26
16	Celta	18	6	6	6	+4	+2.6	24
17	Getafe	18	6	6	6	+0	+1.0	24
18	Cadiz	18	6	6	6	-5	+0.8	24
19	Espanol	18	4	6	8	-8	+3.5	18
20	Elche	18	3	5	10	-11	+2.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	13	1	4	+18	+3.2	40
2	Real Madrid	19	11	1	7	+11	+2.3	34
3	Ath Madrid	18	10	4	4	+11	+1.5	34
4	Sociedad	18	10	3	5	+7	-1.1	33
5	Villarreal	18	7	4	7	+2	+0.7	25
6	Betis	18	7	4	7	-4	-1.7	25
7	Ath Bilbao	18	6	5	7	-3	+3.4	23
8	Sevilla	18	6	5	7	-5	-5.2	23
9	Osasuna	18	4	7	7	-7	-9.3	19
10	Espanol	18	4	5	9	-9	-9.8	17
11	Vallecano	18	4	5	9	-11	-4.5	17
12	Girona	18	3	7	8	-5	-7.7	16
13	Celta	18	4	4	10	-14	-5.6	16
14	Mallorca	18	4	3	11	-13	-6.7	15
15	Getafe	18	3	5	10	-12	-5.6	14
16	Cadiz	18	3	5	10	-19	-6.4	14
17	Valencia	18	3	3	12	-11	-4.2	12
18	Valladolid	18	3	2	13	-26	-13.8	11
19	Almeria	18	1	4	13	-23	-10.9	7
20	Elche	18	1	4	13	-27	-9.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.