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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos

Villarreal

T S U S S

1–1

Full-time

Valencia

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,8

3,5

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 35%

48%

22%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

70%

48%

Both score Ø 68%

78%

57%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,41 xG 1,07

50% Possession 50%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Valencia 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	24	15	6	3	+29	+23.7	51
2	Ath Madrid	24	14	8	2	+23	+18.4	50
3	Barcelona	23	15	3	5	+39	+27.7	48
4	Ath Bilbao	23	12	8	3	+16	+14.1	44
5	Villarreal	23	11	7	5	+12	+15.4	40
6	Vallecano	23	9	8	6	+3	+2.0	35
7	Osasuna	24	7	11	6	-4	-6.7	32
8	Sociedad	23	9	4	10	+0	+3.7	31
9	Girona	24	9	4	11	-3	-0.2	31
10	Mallorca	23	9	4	10	-9	-2.0	31
11	Getafe	24	7	9	8	+2	-4.9	30
12	Celta	24	8	5	11	-3	+6.5	29
13	Betis	23	7	8	8	-4	+2.3	29
14	Sevilla	23	7	7	9	-9	-4.5	28
15	Leganes	24	5	9	10	-13	-22.1	24
16	Las Palmas	23	6	5	12	-10	-21.4	23
17	Espanol	23	6	5	12	-13	-18.2	23
18	Alaves	24	5	7	12	-10	-3.0	22
19	Valencia	23	5	7	11	-13	-8.6	22
20	Valladolid	23	4	3	16	-33	-22.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	9	4	0	+16	+17.1	31
2	Real Madrid	11	9	1	1	+18	+17.2	28
3	Ath Bilbao	12	7	4	1	+12	+9.2	25
4	Celta	12	7	2	3	+8	+5.3	23
5	Osasuna	13	6	5	2	+5	+2.0	23
6	Barcelona	10	7	0	3	+19	+19.1	21
7	Espanol	12	6	3	3	+3	-4.4	21
8	Villarreal	11	5	4	2	+9	+8.0	19
9	Girona	12	6	1	5	+4	+7.2	19
10	Valencia	12	5	3	4	+4	+1.8	18
11	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+2	+6.4	18
12	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-3	+0.8	18
13	Betis	11	4	5	2	+2	+9.7	17
14	Sociedad	12	5	2	5	-1	+3.6	17
15	Getafe	12	3	7	2	+3	+3.0	16
16	Mallorca	12	4	4	4	-3	-2.8	16
17	Leganes	12	4	2	6	-7	-7.8	14
18	Las Palmas	12	3	4	5	-2	-5.6	13
19	Alaves	11	3	4	4	-2	+0.2	13
20	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	8	3	2	+20	+8.6	27
2	Real Madrid	13	6	5	2	+11	+6.5	23
3	Villarreal	12	6	3	3	+3	+7.4	21
4	Ath Madrid	11	5	4	2	+7	+1.2	19
5	Ath Bilbao	11	5	4	2	+4	+4.9	19
6	Vallecano	12	4	5	3	+1	-4.4	17
7	Mallorca	11	5	0	6	-6	+0.8	15
8	Sociedad	11	4	2	5	+1	+0.2	14
9	Getafe	12	4	2	6	-1	-7.9	14
10	Betis	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.4	12
11	Girona	12	3	3	6	-7	-7.4	12
12	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-6	-5.4	10
13	Leganes	12	1	7	4	-6	-14.3	10
14	Las Palmas	11	3	1	7	-8	-15.8	10
15	Alaves	13	2	3	8	-8	-3.2	9
16	Osasuna	11	1	6	4	-9	-8.7	9
17	Celta	12	1	3	8	-11	+1.2	6
18	Valencia	11	0	4	7	-17	-10.4	4
19	Valladolid	12	1	0	11	-25	-14.6	3
20	Espanol	11	0	2	9	-16	-13.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.