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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Ath Bilbao

S S U T S

0–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,29 xG 1,73

53% Possession 47%

8 Shots 9

1 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 8. · Ath Madrid 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+10	+7.4	12
2	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.4	7
3	Celta	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.3	6
4	Real Madrid	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.5	5
5	Ath Madrid	3	1	2	0	+3	+2.7	5
6	Leganes	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
7	Girona	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.9	4
8	Ath Bilbao	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.0	4
9	Alaves	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.1	4
10	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.2	4
11	Osasuna	3	1	1	1	-3	-1.5	4
12	Valladolid	4	1	1	2	-9	-4.2	4
13	Sociedad	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.1	3
14	Getafe	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.7	2
15	Betis	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
16	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.2	2
17	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.5	2
18	Mallorca	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.6	2
19	Espanol	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.3	1
20	Valencia	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.2	6
2	Celta	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.4	6
3	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.4	4
4	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
5	Ath Bilbao	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
6	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
7	Valladolid	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
8	Girona	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.2	3
9	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
10	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
11	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.6	2
12	Mallorca	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
13	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
14	Alaves	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
15	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
16	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.2	0
17	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
18	Vallecano	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
19	Espanol	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
20	Sociedad	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.2	6
2	Vallecano	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
3	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
4	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
5	Alaves	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
6	Real Madrid	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.8	2
7	Sevilla	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
8	Leganes	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
9	Ath Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
10	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
12	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
13	Girona	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.3	1
14	Celta	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
15	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
16	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
17	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
18	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
19	Osasuna	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.2	0
20	Valladolid	2	0	0	2	-10	-5.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.