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Premiership

Referee: N Walsh

Motherwell

S T S S U

4–0

Full-time

Kilmarnock

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Motherwell Kilmarnock

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 25%

41%

Points per game

1,7

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

32%

59%

Both score Ø 52%

45%

59%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,33 xG 0,98

73% Possession 27%

22 Shots 7

11 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

2 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Motherwell 4. · Kilmarnock 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	22	15	5	2	+25	+7.7	50
2	Celtic	22	14	2	6	+18	+10.8	44
3	Rangers	22	12	8	2	+17	+4.6	44
4	Motherwell	22	9	10	3	+14	+6.7	37
5	Hibernian	22	9	8	5	+13	+2.0	35
6	Falkirk	22	8	6	8	-5	+0.4	30
7	Dundee United	22	5	10	7	-6	-7.2	25
8	Aberdeen	22	7	4	11	-8	-7.8	25
9	Dundee	22	6	4	12	-15	-6.0	22
10	St Mirren	22	4	7	11	-14	+2.4	19
11	Kilmarnock	22	2	8	12	-19	-7.6	14
12	Livingston	22	1	8	13	-20	-5.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	11	8	3	0	+16	+4.7	27
2	Celtic	11	8	1	2	+17	+9.5	25
3	Motherwell	11	7	3	1	+13	+8.3	24
4	Rangers	11	6	4	1	+6	+5.6	22
5	Hibernian	11	5	4	2	+10	+2.9	19
6	Dundee	11	5	1	5	-2	-1.0	16
7	Falkirk	11	3	5	3	+0	+2.6	14
8	Aberdeen	11	3	4	4	+0	-4.9	13
9	Dundee United	11	3	4	4	-2	-2.5	13
10	St Mirren	11	3	4	4	-3	+4.8	13
11	Livingston	11	1	4	6	-6	-0.5	7
12	Kilmarnock	11	1	3	7	-11	-3.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	11	7	2	2	+9	+3.0	23
2	Rangers	11	6	4	1	+11	-1.0	22
3	Celtic	11	6	1	4	+1	+1.3	19
4	Hibernian	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.9	16
5	Falkirk	11	5	1	5	-5	-2.2	16
6	Motherwell	11	2	7	2	+1	-1.6	13
7	Dundee United	11	2	6	3	-4	-4.7	12
8	Aberdeen	11	4	0	7	-8	-2.9	12
9	Kilmarnock	11	1	5	5	-8	-4.6	8
10	St Mirren	11	1	3	7	-11	-2.4	6
11	Dundee	11	1	3	7	-13	-4.9	6
12	Livingston	11	0	4	7	-14	-5.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.