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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Marseille

S T S S T

3–1

Full-time

Lens

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

4,7

2,7

Scored

3,5

2,3

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 70%

61%

78%

Points per game

1,9

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

61%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,8

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,00 xG 1,01

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 3. · Lens 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	14	3	2	+26	+18.6	45
2	Lens	18	14	1	3	+19	+10.5	43
3	Marseille	18	11	2	5	+22	+12.0	35
4	Lyon	18	10	3	5	+9	+8.4	33
5	Lille	18	10	2	6	+8	+6.4	32
6	Rennes	19	8	7	4	+3	+1.7	31
7	Strasbourg	18	8	3	7	+6	+5.2	27
8	Toulouse	18	7	5	6	+6	+2.2	26
9	Lorient	19	6	7	6	-5	+1.4	25
10	Monaco	19	7	3	9	-5	+3.0	24
11	Brest	18	6	4	8	-5	+0.0	22
12	Angers	18	6	4	8	-5	-13.8	22
13	Le Havre	19	4	8	7	-8	-4.2	20
14	Paris FC	18	5	4	9	-8	-6.0	19
15	Nice	18	5	3	10	-14	-10.3	18
16	Nantes	18	3	5	10	-13	-13.2	14
17	Auxerre	19	3	3	13	-15	-7.5	12
18	Metz	18	3	3	12	-21	-14.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+18	+10.1	25
2	Lens	9	8	0	1	+13	+11.5	24
3	Lyon	9	7	0	2	+9	+9.6	21
4	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+14	+8.9	20
5	Strasbourg	9	6	1	2	+11	+10.1	19
6	Lille	9	6	1	2	+8	+8.1	19
7	Rennes	10	5	3	2	+8	+8.5	18
8	Lorient	9	4	4	1	+3	+5.1	16
9	Monaco	10	5	1	4	+0	+4.8	16
10	Toulouse	10	4	3	3	+4	+3.7	15
11	Brest	9	4	3	2	+3	+7.4	15
12	Angers	9	4	2	3	+2	-3.2	14
13	Le Havre	10	3	5	2	+2	+6.2	14
14	Nice	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.1	14
15	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-2	+1.8	10
16	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-3	+0.1	8
17	Metz	8	2	2	4	-3	-1.5	8
18	Nantes	9	1	2	6	-8	-7.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	6	2	2	+8	+8.4	20
2	Lens	9	6	1	2	+6	-1.0	19
3	Marseille	9	5	0	4	+8	+3.1	15
4	Lille	9	4	1	4	+0	-1.7	13
5	Rennes	9	3	4	2	-5	-6.8	13
6	Lyon	9	3	3	3	+0	-1.2	12
7	Toulouse	8	3	2	3	+2	-1.5	11
8	Paris FC	10	3	2	5	-5	-6.2	11
9	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-5	-6.0	9
10	Lorient	10	2	3	5	-8	-3.7	9
11	Strasbourg	9	2	2	5	-5	-5.0	8
12	Monaco	9	2	2	5	-5	-1.8	8
13	Angers	9	2	2	5	-7	-10.6	8
14	Brest	9	2	1	6	-8	-7.4	7
15	Le Havre	9	1	3	5	-10	-10.4	6
16	Nice	9	1	1	7	-14	-9.2	4
17	Metz	10	1	1	8	-18	-13.0	4
18	Auxerre	9	0	2	7	-13	-9.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.