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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Fiorentina

T S U U S

1–2

Full-time

Cagliari

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 19%

14%

24%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

57%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

67%

52%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,03 xG 1,28

70% Possession 30%

15 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 17. · Cagliari 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	22	17	1	4	+31	+26.8	52
2	Milan	21	13	7	1	+18	+12.1	46
3	Napoli	21	13	4	4	+14	+8.7	43
4	Roma	21	14	0	7	+14	+3.9	42
5	Como	22	11	7	4	+21	+11.7	40
6	Juventus	21	11	6	4	+15	+18.7	39
7	Atalanta	21	8	8	5	+6	+9.7	32
8	Bologna	21	8	6	7	+6	-0.2	30
9	Lazio	21	7	7	7	+2	-6.4	28
10	Udinese	21	7	5	9	-11	-5.6	26
11	Sassuolo	21	6	5	10	-5	-9.6	23
12	Cremonese	21	5	8	8	-8	-12.5	23
13	Parma	21	5	8	8	-8	-8.1	23
14	Torino	22	6	5	11	-19	-8.4	23
15	Cagliari	21	5	7	9	-8	-12.3	22
16	Genoa	21	4	8	9	-7	+0.0	20
17	Fiorentina	21	3	8	10	-9	+2.2	17
18	Lecce	21	4	5	12	-16	-14.8	17
19	Verona	21	2	8	11	-17	-4.2	14
20	Pisa	22	1	11	10	-19	-11.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	1	2	+23	+18.7	28
2	Napoli	10	7	3	0	+9	+1.9	24
3	Milan	11	7	3	1	+8	+10.3	24
4	Como	11	6	4	1	+13	+7.7	22
5	Juventus	10	6	4	0	+12	+12.3	22
6	Roma	10	7	0	3	+8	+4.4	21
7	Atalanta	11	5	4	2	+5	+9.6	19
8	Lazio	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.2	16
9	Bologna	10	4	2	4	+2	+3.6	14
10	Udinese	11	3	4	4	-5	+0.5	13
11	Cagliari	10	3	3	4	-2	-5.8	12
12	Cremonese	10	2	5	3	-2	-1.4	11
13	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.8	11
14	Torino	11	3	2	6	-9	-5.8	11
15	Genoa	11	2	4	5	-4	+0.6	10
16	Parma	11	2	4	5	-6	-5.8	10
17	Fiorentina	10	2	3	5	-1	+4.5	9
18	Lecce	11	2	3	6	-8	-2.5	9
19	Pisa	11	1	4	6	-9	-2.4	7
20	Verona	10	1	3	6	-6	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	0	2	+8	+8.1	24
2	Milan	10	6	4	0	+10	+1.8	22
3	Roma	11	7	0	4	+6	-0.5	21
4	Napoli	11	6	1	4	+5	+6.8	19
5	Como	11	5	3	3	+8	+3.9	18
6	Juventus	11	5	2	4	+3	+6.4	17
7	Bologna	11	4	4	3	+4	-3.8	16
8	Atalanta	10	3	4	3	+1	+0.1	13
9	Parma	10	3	4	3	-2	-2.3	13
10	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.2	13
11	Lazio	10	3	3	4	-1	-6.2	12
12	Sassuolo	11	3	3	5	-2	-3.8	12
13	Cremonese	11	3	3	5	-6	-11.1	12
14	Torino	11	3	3	5	-10	-2.6	12
15	Genoa	10	2	4	4	-3	-0.5	10
16	Cagliari	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.5	10
17	Fiorentina	11	1	5	5	-8	-2.3	8
18	Lecce	10	2	2	6	-8	-12.4	8
19	Verona	11	1	5	5	-11	-3.8	8
20	Pisa	11	0	7	4	-10	-9.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.