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Serie B

Referee: P Tremolada

Spezia

T T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Avellino

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Avellino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 25%

20%

30%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,92 xG 0,48

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 9

2 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 19. · Avellino 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	21	13	6	2	+21	+3.7	45
2	Venezia	21	13	5	3	+24	+19.2	44
3	Monza	21	12	5	4	+15	+7.5	41
4	Palermo	21	10	8	3	+16	+4.0	38
5	Cesena	21	10	4	7	+4	+5.0	34
6	Modena	21	9	6	6	+11	+5.4	33
7	Juve Stabia	21	8	9	4	+1	+1.2	33
8	Catanzaro	20	8	7	5	+3	-2.2	31
9	Carrarese	21	7	8	6	+0	-4.5	29
10	Empoli	21	7	6	8	-2	+0.4	27
11	Padova	20	6	7	7	-2	-4.0	25
12	Avellino	20	6	7	7	-9	-7.8	25
13	Sudtirol	20	4	10	6	-3	-3.5	22
14	Reggiana	21	5	5	11	-7	-2.9	20
15	Virtus Entella	21	4	8	9	-10	-5.6	20
16	Bari	21	4	8	9	-13	-8.9	20
17	Mantova	21	5	4	12	-14	-5.9	19
18	Sampdoria	20	4	6	10	-8	+1.0	18
19	Spezia	20	4	5	11	-10	+0.6	17
20	Pescara	21	2	8	11	-17	-2.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	10	9	0	1	+18	+8.7	27
2	Monza	11	8	2	1	+12	+4.5	26
3	Palermo	11	7	3	1	+13	+4.5	24
4	Frosinone	10	7	2	1	+14	+2.7	23
5	Juve Stabia	11	6	5	0	+8	+1.9	23
6	Carrarese	11	5	4	2	+7	+2.3	19
7	Catanzaro	10	5	4	1	+5	+1.6	19
8	Modena	11	5	3	3	+7	-1.3	18
9	Virtus Entella	10	4	5	1	+4	-1.3	17
10	Empoli	11	3	6	2	+5	+2.9	15
11	Cesena	10	4	3	3	+3	+5.8	15
12	Sampdoria	10	4	3	3	+2	+2.5	15
13	Avellino	10	4	3	3	-3	-5.6	15
14	Bari	10	3	4	3	+0	-4.0	13
15	Reggiana	10	3	3	4	+0	-1.9	12
16	Sudtirol	9	3	2	4	+0	-1.8	11
17	Padova	10	2	5	3	-1	-4.1	11
18	Mantova	11	3	2	6	-8	-0.9	11
19	Pescara	11	2	4	5	-3	-0.9	10
20	Spezia	10	2	3	5	-6	-1.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	11	6	4	1	+7	+1.0	22
2	Cesena	11	6	1	4	+1	-0.8	19
3	Venezia	11	4	5	2	+6	+10.6	17
4	Modena	10	4	3	3	+4	+6.8	15
5	Monza	10	4	3	3	+3	+2.9	15
6	Palermo	10	3	5	2	+3	-0.5	14
7	Padova	10	4	2	4	-1	+0.1	14
8	Catanzaro	10	3	3	4	-2	-3.8	12
9	Empoli	10	4	0	6	-7	-2.5	12
10	Sudtirol	11	1	8	2	-3	-1.7	11
11	Avellino	10	2	4	4	-6	-2.2	10
12	Carrarese	10	2	4	4	-7	-6.8	10
13	Juve Stabia	10	2	4	4	-7	-0.7	10
14	Spezia	10	2	2	6	-4	+2.3	8
15	Mantova	10	2	2	6	-6	-5.0	8
16	Reggiana	11	2	2	7	-7	-1.0	8
17	Bari	11	1	4	6	-13	-5.0	7
18	Pescara	10	0	4	6	-14	-1.8	4
19	Sampdoria	10	0	3	7	-10	-1.5	3
20	Virtus Entella	11	0	3	8	-14	-4.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.