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La Liga

Referee: M Ortiz

Ath Bilbao

T T S T S

0–1

Full-time

Valencia

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 34%

38%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

41%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,93 xG 1,19

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

13 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 9. · Valencia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	34	29	1	4	+58	+41.0	88
2	Real Madrid	34	24	5	5	+39	+35.2	77
3	Villarreal	35	21	6	8	+25	+11.1	69
4	Ath Madrid	35	19	6	10	+20	+12.2	63
5	Betis	35	13	15	7	+11	+8.9	54
6	Celta	35	13	11	11	+5	+1.3	50
7	Sociedad	35	11	11	13	-1	-0.8	44
8	Getafe	34	13	5	16	-8	-12.7	44
9	Ath Bilbao	34	13	5	16	-10	+7.4	44
10	Osasuna	35	11	9	15	-3	-5.1	42
11	Vallecano	34	10	12	12	-6	+2.8	42
12	Sevilla	35	11	7	17	-13	-16.9	40
13	Elche	35	9	12	14	-8	-19.4	39
14	Mallorca	35	10	9	16	-9	-18.5	39
15	Valencia	34	10	9	15	-13	+2.3	39
16	Espanol	35	10	9	16	-15	-6.0	39
17	Girona	34	9	11	14	-15	-10.3	38
18	Alaves	35	9	10	16	-13	-2.7	37
19	Levante	35	9	9	17	-16	-10.3	36
20	Oviedo	34	6	10	18	-28	-19.6	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	17	0	0	+43	+26.4	51
2	Villarreal	17	14	1	2	+26	+10.8	43
3	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+25	+23.1	43
4	Ath Madrid	18	14	1	3	+21	+19.8	43
5	Elche	18	8	8	2	+10	-2.7	32
6	Osasuna	17	9	5	3	+9	+7.9	32
7	Betis	17	8	6	3	+13	+9.3	30
8	Mallorca	18	8	6	4	+7	+0.9	30
9	Sociedad	18	8	5	5	+7	+7.7	29
10	Ath Bilbao	17	9	2	6	+2	+10.7	29
11	Vallecano	17	6	9	2	+7	+9.9	27
12	Valencia	17	7	5	5	+2	+9.5	26
13	Sevilla	18	7	4	7	+0	-1.4	25
14	Alaves	17	6	6	5	+0	+2.1	24
15	Levante	18	6	5	7	-4	-0.1	23
16	Espanol	17	6	4	7	-5	-0.1	22
17	Girona	17	6	4	7	-6	-6.1	22
18	Getafe	17	6	3	8	-1	-3.2	21
19	Celta	17	5	5	7	+1	+4.1	20
20	Oviedo	17	4	6	7	-8	-9.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	1	4	+15	+14.6	37
2	Real Madrid	17	10	4	3	+14	+12.0	34
3	Celta	18	8	6	4	+4	-2.7	30
4	Villarreal	18	7	5	6	-1	+0.3	26
5	Betis	18	5	9	4	-2	-0.4	24
6	Getafe	17	7	2	8	-7	-9.5	23
7	Ath Madrid	17	5	5	7	-1	-7.6	20
8	Espanol	18	4	5	9	-10	-5.9	17
9	Girona	17	3	7	7	-9	-4.2	16
10	Sociedad	17	3	6	8	-8	-8.5	15
11	Ath Bilbao	17	4	3	10	-12	-3.3	15
12	Sevilla	17	4	3	10	-13	-15.4	15
13	Vallecano	17	4	3	10	-13	-7.1	15
14	Levante	17	3	4	10	-12	-10.2	13
15	Alaves	18	3	4	11	-13	-4.8	13
16	Valencia	17	3	4	10	-15	-7.2	13
17	Osasuna	18	2	4	12	-12	-13.0	10
18	Oviedo	17	2	4	11	-20	-10.5	10
19	Mallorca	17	2	3	12	-16	-19.5	9
20	Elche	17	1	4	12	-18	-16.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.