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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Nott'm Forest

S S S S T

1–1

Full-time

Newcastle

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 34%

31%

37%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

54%

66%

Both score Ø 55%

43%

66%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,10 xG 1,48

46% Possession 54%

17 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 16. · Newcastle 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	35	23	7	5	+41	+34.2	76
2	Man City	35	22	8	5	+40	+27.3	74
3	Man United	36	18	11	7	+15	+13.2	65
4	Liverpool	36	17	8	11	+12	+12.2	59
5	Aston Villa	35	17	7	11	+4	-6.1	58
6	Bournemouth	36	13	16	7	+4	+5.3	55
7	Brighton	36	14	11	11	+10	+6.8	53
8	Brentford	36	14	9	13	+3	+7.3	51
9	Chelsea	36	13	10	13	+6	+15.8	49
10	Everton	35	13	9	13	+0	-8.4	48
11	Fulham	36	14	6	16	-6	-6.7	48
12	Sunderland	36	12	12	12	-9	-16.4	48
13	Newcastle	35	13	6	16	-2	+6.1	45
14	Leeds	35	10	13	12	-5	+2.2	43
15	Crystal Palace	34	11	10	13	-6	+7.8	43
16	Nott'm Forest	35	11	9	15	-2	-8.7	42
17	Tottenham	35	9	10	16	-9	-13.0	37
18	West Ham	35	9	9	17	-19	-13.9	36
19	Burnley	35	4	8	23	-36	-41.0	20
20	Wolves	36	3	9	24	-41	-24.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+29	+20.9	44
2	Man City	17	13	3	1	+29	+16.8	42
3	Man United	18	12	3	3	+14	+14.2	39
4	Liverpool	18	10	5	3	+14	+9.3	35
5	Aston Villa	18	11	2	5	+8	+1.3	35
6	Brighton	18	9	6	3	+13	+8.5	33
7	Fulham	18	10	2	6	+8	+2.7	32
8	Brentford	18	8	7	3	+12	+13.2	31
9	Bournemouth	18	7	9	2	+9	+13.6	30
10	Sunderland	18	8	6	4	+4	-3.5	30
11	Leeds	18	8	5	5	+7	+10.0	29
12	Newcastle	18	9	2	7	+4	+8.3	29
13	Everton	18	6	5	7	+1	-0.3	23
14	Chelsea	18	6	5	7	+0	+9.1	23
15	Crystal Palace	17	4	8	5	-3	+9.5	20
16	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-5	-1.8	19
17	Nott'm Forest	17	4	6	7	-3	+1.9	18
18	Wolves	18	3	4	11	-15	-7.7	13
19	Tottenham	17	2	5	10	-10	-4.2	11
20	Burnley	17	2	5	10	-11	-16.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	9	5	3	+12	+13.2	32
2	Man City	18	9	5	4	+11	+10.5	32
3	Chelsea	18	7	5	6	+6	+6.7	26
4	Man United	18	6	8	4	+1	-1.0	26
5	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+1	-8.8	26
6	Everton	17	7	4	6	-1	-8.1	25
7	Bournemouth	18	6	7	5	-5	-8.3	25
8	Nott'm Forest	18	7	3	8	+1	-10.6	24
9	Liverpool	18	7	3	8	-2	+2.8	24
10	Crystal Palace	17	7	2	8	-3	-1.7	23
11	Aston Villa	17	6	5	6	-4	-7.4	23
12	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-3	-1.7	20
13	Brentford	18	6	2	10	-9	-5.8	20
14	Sunderland	18	4	6	8	-13	-12.9	18
15	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-14	-12.1	17
16	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-6	-2.2	16
17	Fulham	18	4	4	10	-14	-9.4	16
18	Leeds	17	2	8	7	-12	-7.8	14
19	Burnley	18	2	3	13	-25	-24.1	9
20	Wolves	18	0	5	13	-26	-16.4	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.