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Serie A
Referee: D Doveri
Milan
S S T S S
0–2
Full-time
Inter
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Inter
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,5
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,0
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,0
This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
0%
67%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
1,0
2,7
Scored
0,7
2,3
Conceded
0,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%
7 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 9
3 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
1 Offside 5
15 Free kicks against 22
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milan 8. · Inter 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 4 3 1 0 +3 10
2 Inter 3 3 0 0 +6 9
3 Bologna 3 2 1 0 +2 7
4 Napoli 3 2 0 1 +2 6
5 Cagliari 4 2 0 2 +2 6
6 Atalanta 3 2 0 1 +1 6
7 Torino 3 2 0 1 +1 6
8 Milan 3 2 0 1 +1 6
9 Brescia 4 2 0 2 +0 6
10 Roma 3 1 2 0 +2 5
11 Lazio 3 1 1 1 +2 4
12 Verona 4 1 1 2 -1 4
13 Genoa 4 1 1 2 -2 4
14 Sassuolo 3 1 0 2 +0 3
15 Parma 3 1 0 2 -1 3
16 Spal 3 1 0 2 -1 3
17 Udinese 4 1 0 3 -3 3
18 Lecce 3 1 0 2 -4 3
19 Fiorentina 3 0 1 2 -2 1
20 Sampdoria 3 0 0 3 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milan Inter
Half-time 0–0
Andrea Conti 🟨
48′
49′
Marcelo Brozović 0–1
Stefano Sensi
Lucas Paquetá 🔁
↦ Hakan Çalhanoğlu
64′
71′
🔁 Matías Vecino
↦ Stefano Sensi
Theo Hernández 🔁
↦ Ricardo Rodríguez
72′
76′
🔁 Matteo Politano
↦ Lautaro Martínez
78′
Romelu Lukaku 0–2
Nicolò Barella
82′
🟨 Danilo D'Ambrosio
82′
🔁 Antonio Candreva
↦ Nicolò Barella
Ante Rebić 🔁
↦ Rafael Leão
83′
Ante Rebić 🟨
88′
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Milan

4-3-1-2
99 Gianluigi Donnarumma G
12 Andrea Conti D
22 Mateo Musacchio D
13 Alessio Romagnoli D
68 Ricardo Rodríguez D
79 Franck Kessié M
20 Lucas Biglia M
10 Hakan Çalhanoğlu M
8 Suso M
9 Krzysztof Piątek F
17 Rafael Leão F
Bench (12)
25 Pepe Reina
90 Antonio Donnarumma
43 Léo Duarte
19 Theo Hernández
39 Lucas Paquetá
7 Samu Castillejo
46 Matteo Gabbia
33 Rade Krunić
5 Giacomo Bonaventura
4 Ismaël Bennacer
18 Ante Rebić
11 Fabio Borini

Coach: M. Giampaolo

Inter

3-1-4-2
1 Samir Handanovič G
2 Diego Godín D
6 Stefan de Vrij D
37 Milan Škriniar D
77 Marcelo Brozović M
33 Danilo D'Ambrosio M
23 Nicolò Barella M
12 Stefano Sensi M
18 Kwadwo Asamoah M
9 Romelu Lukaku F
10 Lautaro Martínez F
Bench (12)
27 Daniele Padelli
13 Andrea Ranocchia
34 Cristiano Biraghi
21 Federico Dimarco
95 Alessandro Bastoni
19 Valentino Lazaro
8 Matías Vecino
5 Roberto Gagliardini
16 Matteo Politano
87 Antonio Candreva
20 Borja Valero
7 Alexis Sánchez

Coach: A. Conte

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,37
U
3,20
B ✓
2,27
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,11
U2,5 ✓
1,73
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Doveri · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.