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Serie A

Referee: F Fourneau

Milan

S U S S S

2–2

Full-time

Parma

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 50%

80%

20%

Points per game

2,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

70%

60%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

16 Shots 5

10 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

13 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 1. · Parma 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	10	8	2	0	+14	26
2	Napoli	10	8	0	2	+18	24
3	Inter	11	7	3	1	+14	24
4	Sassuolo	11	6	4	1	+9	22
5	Roma	11	6	3	2	+8	21
6	Juventus	10	5	5	0	+11	20
7	Verona	11	5	4	2	+6	19
8	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+5	17
9	Lazio	11	5	2	4	-2	17
10	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	Cagliari	11	3	3	5	-5	12
12	Bologna	11	4	0	7	-6	12
13	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-3	11
14	Benevento	11	3	2	6	-10	11
15	Parma	10	2	4	4	-7	10
16	Spezia	11	2	4	5	-8	10
17	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	Torino	11	1	3	7	-8	6
19	Genoa	11	1	3	7	-12	6
20	Crotone	11	1	2	8	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	4	0	2	+10	12
2	Roma	5	3	2	0	+8	11
3	Milan	5	3	2	0	+7	11
4	Verona	6	3	2	1	+4	11
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+6	10
6	Inter	5	3	1	1	+4	10
7	Sassuolo	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Bologna	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Cagliari	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Fiorentina	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Parma	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	+0	4
16	Crotone	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Benevento	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Genoa	6	1	0	5	-5	3
19	Torino	6	0	2	4	-5	2
20	Spezia	5	0	2	3	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	14
3	Sassuolo	5	4	1	0	+8	13
4	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+8	12
5	Lazio	5	4	0	1	+3	12
6	Juventus	6	2	4	0	+5	10
7	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+3	10
8	Roma	6	3	1	2	+0	10
9	Verona	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Spezia	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Udinese	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	Sampdoria	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Benevento	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Torino	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Parma	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-7	3
19	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-8	2
20	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.