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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Leicester

S S T T S

3–0

Full-time

Brighton

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 41%

64%

18%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

73%

64%

Both score Ø 64%

45%

82%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,9

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 5. · Brighton 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	12	7	4	1	+14	25
2	Liverpool	12	7	4	1	+9	25
3	Southampton	12	7	2	3	+7	23
4	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+13	22
5	Leicester	11	7	0	4	+6	21
6	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+5	20
7	Everton	12	6	2	4	+3	20
8	Man United	11	6	2	3	+2	20
9	Man City	11	5	4	2	+6	19
10	Aston Villa	10	6	0	4	+8	18
11	Crystal Palace	12	5	2	5	+1	17
12	Newcastle	11	5	2	4	-2	17
13	Wolves	12	5	2	5	-5	17
14	Leeds	12	4	2	6	-5	14
15	Arsenal	11	4	1	6	-4	13
16	Brighton	11	2	4	5	-3	10
17	Fulham	12	2	2	8	-10	8
18	Burnley	10	1	3	6	-13	6
19	West Brom	12	1	3	8	-16	6
20	Sheffield United	12	0	1	11	-16	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Southampton	6	4	0	2	+5	12
3	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+7	11
4	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
5	Man City	5	3	1	1	+5	10
6	Everton	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	10
8	Newcastle	6	3	0	3	-4	9
9	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Wolves	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Aston Villa	5	2	0	3	+1	6
12	Leicester	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Arsenal	5	2	0	3	-3	6
14	Leeds	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	West Brom	6	1	2	3	-7	5
16	Man United	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Fulham	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Brighton	6	0	3	3	-4	3
20	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+8	15
3	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+10	14
4	Aston Villa	5	4	0	1	+7	12
5	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+6	11
6	Southampton	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Everton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
9	Man City	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Crystal Palace	6	3	0	3	+0	9
11	Leeds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-5	9
13	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
15	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Liverpool	6	1	4	1	-3	7
17	Fulham	6	1	1	4	-4	4
18	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-9	2
19	West Brom	6	0	1	5	-9	1
20	Sheffield United	6	0	0	6	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.