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Premier League

Referee: D England

Chelsea

T S U S S

2–2

Full-time

Burnley

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,5

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

1,7

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/29 matches

Win Ø 28%

41%

14%

Points per game

1,4

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

63%

62%

Both score Ø 61%

67%

55%

Average goals

3,4

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

4,26 xG 1,64

69% Possession 31%

33 Shots 18

13 Shots on target 7

10 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 11

12 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Chelsea 11. · Burnley 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	28	20	4	4	+46	+37.8	64
2	Liverpool	28	19	7	2	+39	+28.8	64
3	Man City	28	19	6	3	+35	+29.9	63
4	Aston Villa	29	17	5	7	+18	+10.2	56
5	Tottenham	28	16	5	7	+17	+2.3	53
6	Man United	28	15	2	11	+0	-4.6	47
7	West Ham	30	12	8	10	-5	-12.8	44
8	Newcastle	29	13	4	12	+12	+4.8	43
9	Brighton	28	11	9	8	+6	+7.1	42
10	Wolves	28	12	5	11	-2	-10.3	41
11	Chelsea	27	11	6	10	+2	+9.7	39
12	Fulham	29	11	5	13	-1	-11.1	38
13	Bournemouth	28	9	8	11	-11	-2.3	35
14	Everton	28	8	7	13	-10	+2.6	31
15	Crystal Palace	28	7	8	13	-15	-6.9	29
16	Brentford	29	7	5	17	-13	+0.7	26
17	Nott'm Forest	29	6	7	16	-16	-5.6	25
18	Luton	29	5	7	17	-18	-25.2	22
19	Burnley	29	4	5	20	-34	-23.2	17
20	Sheffield United	28	3	5	20	-50	-32.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+26	+27.2	36
2	Arsenal	14	11	2	1	+23	+22.6	35
3	Man City	14	10	4	0	+22	+15.5	34
4	Newcastle	15	10	2	3	+19	+16.3	32
5	Aston Villa	14	10	1	3	+16	+12.0	31
6	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+10	+5.2	30
7	Fulham	15	9	1	5	+14	+2.7	28
8	Brighton	14	7	6	1	+12	+8.1	27
9	Man United	14	8	1	5	+1	+2.6	25
10	West Ham	15	6	6	3	+3	-3.6	24
11	Wolves	14	7	3	4	+1	-4.7	24
12	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+3	+11.0	21
13	Bournemouth	14	4	5	5	-5	+1.0	17
14	Crystal Palace	14	4	4	6	-1	+2.7	16
15	Brentford	14	4	4	6	-5	+2.5	16
16	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-2	+1.3	15
17	Everton	14	3	4	7	-3	+9.0	13
18	Luton	15	3	3	9	-4	-4.1	12
19	Burnley	15	2	2	11	-20	-5.4	8
20	Sheffield United	14	2	2	10	-30	-14.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	9	2	3	+23	+15.2	29
2	Man City	14	9	2	3	+13	+14.3	29
3	Liverpool	14	8	4	2	+13	+1.6	28
4	Aston Villa	15	7	4	4	+2	-1.8	25
5	Tottenham	14	6	5	3	+7	-2.9	23
6	Man United	14	7	1	6	-1	-7.2	22
7	West Ham	15	6	2	7	-8	-9.2	20
8	Chelsea	14	5	3	6	-1	-1.3	18
9	Bournemouth	14	5	3	6	-6	-3.2	18
10	Everton	14	5	3	6	-7	-6.3	18
11	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-3	-5.6	17
12	Brighton	14	4	3	7	-6	-1.0	15
13	Crystal Palace	14	3	4	7	-14	-9.5	13
14	Newcastle	14	3	2	9	-7	-11.5	11
15	Brentford	15	3	1	11	-8	-1.8	10
16	Luton	14	2	4	8	-14	-21.0	10
17	Nott'm Forest	15	2	4	9	-14	-6.9	10
18	Fulham	14	2	4	8	-15	-13.8	10
19	Burnley	14	2	3	9	-14	-17.8	9
20	Sheffield United	14	1	3	10	-20	-17.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.