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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

RB Leipzig

T S U S S

0–0

Full-time

Mainz

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 35%

58%

12%

Points per game

1,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

69%

42%

Both score Ø 60%

62%

58%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,75 xG 0,92

67% Possession 33%

23 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 9

12 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 5. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	26	22	4	0	+48	+30.0	70
2	Bayern Munich	26	19	3	4	+47	+49.4	60
3	Stuttgart	26	18	2	6	+29	+29.5	56
4	Dortmund	26	14	8	4	+21	+10.7	50
5	RB Leipzig	26	15	4	7	+28	+21.9	49
6	Ein Frankfurt	26	10	10	6	+7	-4.0	40
7	Augsburg	26	9	8	9	+1	-4.5	35
8	Hoffenheim	26	9	6	11	-6	-6.9	33
9	Freiburg	26	9	6	11	-12	-1.9	33
10	Werder Bremen	26	8	6	12	-6	-6.2	30
11	Heidenheim	26	7	8	11	-9	-18.7	29
12	M'gladbach	26	6	10	10	-4	-4.7	28
13	Union Berlin	26	8	4	14	-17	-8.1	28
14	Wolfsburg	26	6	7	13	-13	-4.2	25
15	Bochum	26	5	10	11	-24	-19.3	25
16	Mainz	26	3	10	13	-24	-4.3	19
17	FC Koln	26	3	9	14	-27	-27.7	18
18	Darmstadt	26	2	7	17	-39	-31.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	13	11	2	0	+29	+22.1	35
2	Bayern Munich	13	11	1	1	+38	+30.8	34
3	Stuttgart	13	10	2	1	+26	+22.3	32
4	RB Leipzig	13	9	2	2	+22	+17.2	29
5	Dortmund	13	8	2	3	+8	+10.6	26
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	5	1	+10	+5.1	23
7	Freiburg	13	5	5	3	+2	+6.8	20
8	Augsburg	13	5	5	3	+2	-0.8	20
9	Union Berlin	13	6	2	5	-3	-1.1	20
10	M'gladbach	13	5	4	4	+5	+5.9	19
11	Heidenheim	13	5	4	4	+1	-4.8	19
12	Werder Bremen	13	5	3	5	+1	+1.6	18
13	Bochum	13	4	6	3	+1	+1.2	18
14	Wolfsburg	13	4	4	5	+0	-0.6	16
15	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-5	+1.2	13
16	Mainz	13	3	4	6	-5	+5.7	13
17	FC Koln	13	2	3	8	-13	-11.0	9
18	Darmstadt	14	1	3	10	-21	-10.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	13	11	2	0	+19	+7.9	35
2	Bayern Munich	13	8	2	3	+9	+18.6	26
3	Dortmund	13	6	6	1	+13	+0.2	24
4	Stuttgart	13	8	0	5	+3	+7.2	24
5	RB Leipzig	13	6	2	5	+6	+4.7	20
6	Hoffenheim	13	6	2	5	-1	-8.0	20
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	5	5	-3	-9.2	17
8	Augsburg	13	4	3	6	-1	-3.6	15
9	Freiburg	13	4	1	8	-14	-8.7	13
10	Werder Bremen	13	3	3	7	-7	-7.8	12
11	Heidenheim	13	2	4	7	-10	-13.9	10
12	M'gladbach	13	1	6	6	-9	-10.6	9
13	Wolfsburg	13	2	3	8	-13	-3.6	9
14	FC Koln	13	1	6	6	-14	-16.7	9
15	Union Berlin	13	2	2	9	-14	-7.0	8
16	Darmstadt	12	1	4	7	-18	-20.4	7
17	Bochum	13	1	4	8	-25	-20.5	7
18	Mainz	13	0	6	7	-19	-10.0	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.