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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Brentford

T S T T T

2–2

Full-time

Chelsea

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,8

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

2,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 34%

27%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

69%

60%

Both score Ø 65%

65%

64%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,83 xG 1,81

32% Possession 68%

14 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 16. · Chelsea 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	26	18	6	2	+38	+26.5	60
2	Man City	26	18	5	3	+33	+27.9	59
3	Arsenal	26	18	4	4	+39	+35.5	58
4	Aston Villa	26	16	4	6	+21	+12.1	52
5	Tottenham	25	14	5	6	+14	+0.4	47
6	Man United	26	14	2	10	+0	-2.6	44
7	Brighton	26	10	9	7	+8	+7.3	39
8	West Ham	26	11	6	9	-6	-12.1	39
9	Wolves	26	11	5	10	+0	-7.0	38
10	Newcastle	26	11	4	11	+9	+1.6	37
11	Chelsea	25	10	5	10	+1	+8.9	35
12	Fulham	26	9	5	12	-6	-13.3	32
13	Everton	26	8	7	11	-6	+2.9	31
14	Crystal Palace	26	7	7	12	-13	-7.2	28
15	Bournemouth	25	7	7	11	-14	-4.3	28
16	Brentford	26	7	4	15	-11	+2.6	25
17	Nott'm Forest	26	6	6	14	-14	-6.2	24
18	Luton	25	5	5	15	-16	-21.4	20
19	Burnley	26	3	4	19	-33	-23.8	13
20	Sheffield United	26	3	4	19	-44	-27.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	11	2	0	+26	+26.0	35
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+22	+22.3	32
3	Aston Villa	13	10	1	2	+20	+12.7	31
4	Man City	13	9	4	0	+20	+12.4	31
5	Tottenham	13	9	0	4	+8	+3.6	27
6	Newcastle	13	8	2	3	+15	+12.3	26
7	Brighton	13	6	6	1	+11	+8.4	24
8	Fulham	13	7	1	5	+8	+2.4	22
9	West Ham	13	6	4	3	+3	-6.4	22
10	Man United	13	7	1	5	-1	+1.5	22
11	Wolves	13	6	3	4	+0	-2.9	21
12	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+2	+10.2	18
13	Nott'm Forest	13	4	3	6	-1	+2.4	15
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	3	6	-1	+0.8	15
15	Brentford	13	4	3	6	-5	+2.5	15
16	Everton	13	3	4	6	-1	+8.1	13
17	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-6	-1.4	13
18	Luton	13	3	2	8	-3	-2.5	11
19	Sheffield United	13	2	2	9	-24	-12.2	8
20	Burnley	13	1	2	10	-19	-7.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	1	3	+13	+15.5	28
2	Arsenal	13	8	2	3	+17	+13.1	26
3	Liverpool	13	7	4	2	+12	+0.5	25
4	Man United	13	7	1	5	+1	-4.2	22
5	Aston Villa	13	6	3	4	+1	-0.6	21
6	Tottenham	12	5	5	2	+6	-3.3	20
7	Everton	13	5	3	5	-5	-5.2	18
8	Wolves	13	5	2	6	+0	-4.2	17
9	Chelsea	13	5	2	6	-1	-1.3	17
10	West Ham	13	5	2	6	-9	-5.6	17
11	Brighton	13	4	3	6	-3	-1.1	15
12	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-8	-2.8	15
13	Crystal Palace	13	3	4	6	-12	-7.9	13
14	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-6	-10.7	11
15	Brentford	13	3	1	9	-6	+0.1	10
16	Fulham	13	2	4	7	-14	-15.7	10
17	Luton	12	2	3	7	-13	-18.8	9
18	Nott'm Forest	13	2	3	8	-13	-8.6	9
19	Burnley	13	2	2	9	-14	-16.4	8
20	Sheffield United	13	1	2	10	-20	-15.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.