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Serie A
Referee: P Valeri
Inter
T U S S U
3–2
Full-time
Napoli
S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,5
1,7
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
1,0
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 71%
58%
83%
Points per game
2,1
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 54%
75%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,3
Scored
2,4
2,0
Conceded
1,1
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

45% Possession 55%
17 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 1
2 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 16
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Inter 3. · Napoli 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 12 10 2 0 +20 32
2 Milan 13 10 2 1 +14 32
3 Inter 12 7 4 1 +16 25
4 Atalanta 13 7 4 2 +10 25
5 Lazio 13 6 3 4 +4 21
6 Fiorentina 13 7 0 6 +3 21
7 Juventus 13 6 3 4 +3 21
8 Roma 12 6 1 5 +6 19
9 Bologna 13 5 3 5 -5 18
10 Verona 12 4 4 4 +4 16
11 Empoli 12 5 1 6 -5 16
12 Sassuolo 13 4 3 6 -1 15
13 Venezia 13 4 3 6 -7 15
14 Torino 12 4 2 6 +3 14
15 Udinese 12 3 5 4 -3 14
16 Sampdoria 13 3 3 7 -8 12
17 Spezia 13 3 2 8 -16 11
18 Genoa 12 1 6 5 -7 9
19 Cagliari 13 1 4 8 -13 7
20 Salernitana 13 2 1 10 -18 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Inter Napoli
10′
🟨 Victor Osimhen
17′
P. Zieliński 0–1
L. Insigne
Nicolò Barella ℹ️
VAR: Penalty awarded
24′
24′
🟨 Kalidou Koulibaly
1–1 H. Çalhanoğlu
25′
35′
🟨 Amir Rrahmani
Hakan Çalhanoğlu 🟨
41′
2–1 I. Perišić
H. Çalhanoğlu
44′
Half-time 2–1
55′
🔁 A. Petagna
↦ V. Osimhen
3–1 Lautaro Martínez
J. Correa
61′
A. Vidal 🔁
↦ H. Çalhanoğlu
62′
E. Džeko 🔁
↦ J. Correa
62′
Arturo Vidal 🟨
72′
R. Gagliardini 🔁
↦ Lautaro Martínez
75′
F. Dimarco 🔁
↦ N. Barella
75′
75′
🔁 D. Mertens
↦ L. Insigne
75′
🔁 E. Elmas
↦ H. Lozano
78′
D. Mertens 3–2
K. Koulibaly
Samir Handanovič 🟨
84′
M. Satriano 🔁
↦ I. Perišić
88′
Edin Džeko 🟨
92′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Inter

3-5-2
1 S. Handanovič G
36 M. Darmian M
13 A. Ranocchia D
37 M. Škriniar D
95 A. Bastoni D
14 I. Perišić M
77 M. Brozović M
20 H. Çalhanoğlu M
19 J. Correa F
23 N. Barella M
10 Lautaro Martínez F
Bench (12)
22 A. Vidal
9 E. Džeko
5 R. Gagliardini
32 F. Dimarco
48 M. Satriano
2 D. Dumfries
33 D. D'Ambrosio
8 M. Vecino
21 A. Cordaz
12 S. Sensi
11 A. Kolarov
97 I. Radu

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Napoli

4-2-3-1
25 D. Ospina G
6 Mário Rui D
26 K. Koulibaly D
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
13 A. Rrahmani D
20 P. Zieliński M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
99 A. Zambo Anguissa M
24 L. Insigne M
11 H. Lozano M
9 V. Osimhen F
Bench (9)
37 A. Petagna
14 D. Mertens
7 E. Elmas
5 Juan Jesus
2 K. Malcuit
1 A. Meret
31 F. Ghoulam
12 D. Marfella
68 S. Lobotka

Coach: L. Spalletti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,25
U
3,45
B
3,22
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,76
U2,5
2,06
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Valeri · 55 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.