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Serie A

Referee: M Marcenaro

Atalanta

S T S S T

3–0

Full-time

Monza

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,26 xG 0,36

41% Possession 59%

18 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 10. · Monza 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.4	9
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.0	6
3	Inter	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.2	6
4	Verona	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.1	6
5	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.9	4
6	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.2	4
7	Lecce	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.2	4
8	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.7	4
9	Frosinone	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.4	4
10	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
11	Monza	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
12	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.2	3
13	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.7	3
14	Salernitana	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
15	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	-0.7	2
16	Roma	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.6	1
17	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.0	1
18	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.7	1
19	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.0	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
2	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+3.4	3
3	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
4	Monza	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
5	Verona	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
6	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
7	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
8	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
9	Bologna	2	1	0	1	-1	+2.0	3
10	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
11	Juventus	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
12	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
14	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
15	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.0	1
16	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
17	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
18	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
19	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.8	6
2	Fiorentina	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
3	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
4	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
5	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
7	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
8	Verona	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
9	Lecce	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
10	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.8	1
11	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
12	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
13	Frosinone	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
14	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
15	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
16	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
17	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-3.4	0
18	Monza	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
19	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
20	Torino	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.