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Bundesliga

Referee: F Brych

Stuttgart

S S S S T

5–0

Full-time

Freiburg

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

5,5

2,0

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

2,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,74 xG 1,05

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stuttgart 9. · Freiburg 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+6	-0.9	6
2	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.5	6
3	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
4	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.7	6
5	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.5	6
6	Dortmund	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.4	5
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
8	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.8	3
9	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
10	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
11	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
12	Heidenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.6	1
13	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.1	1
14	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-3	+0.5	1
15	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.6	1
16	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.5	0
17	Darmstadt	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.4	0
18	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
2	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+5	+2.3	3
3	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.6	3
4	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.4	3
5	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
6	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
7	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
8	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
9	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
10	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
11	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Bochum	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
13	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
14	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
15	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
16	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.5	0
17	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.5	0
18	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.3	3
2	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.5	3
3	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.5	3
4	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
5	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
6	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
7	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
8	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
9	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
10	Heidenheim	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.2	1
11	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
12	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
13	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
14	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
15	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.2	0
16	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.4	0
17	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.6	0
18	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.