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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Atalanta

T S U S S

3–1

Full-time

Lecce

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

57% Possession 43%

26 Shots 5

14 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 12

9 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 3. · Lecce 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Juventus	6	5	1	0	+6	16
3	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Napoli	6	4	0	2	+5	12
5	Fiorentina	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	Roma	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Lazio	6	3	1	2	+7	10
8	Cagliari	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Verona	7	2	3	2	+1	9
10	Torino	6	3	0	3	+0	9
11	Parma	7	3	0	4	-2	9
12	Milan	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Bologna	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Sassuolo	6	2	0	4	-1	6
16	Brescia	6	2	0	4	-2	6
17	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
18	Spal	7	2	0	5	-7	6
19	Genoa	7	1	2	4	-7	5
20	Sampdoria	7	1	0	6	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Lazio	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Torino	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Spal	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Parma	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Udinese	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Verona	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Roma	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Milan	3	1	0	2	-3	3
17	Sampdoria	3	1	0	2	-4	3
18	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Brescia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Lecce	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Inter	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Roma	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Milan	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Brescia	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Lecce	3	2	0	1	-1	6
10	Bologna	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Fiorentina	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Verona	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Lazio	3	1	0	2	+1	3
14	Torino	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Parma	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Udinese	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	Sassuolo	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Spal	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Sampdoria	4	0	0	4	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.