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Serie A

Referee: E Feliciani

Fiorentina

T U U T T

5–1

Full-time

Frosinone

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Frosinone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

4,2

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 22/23 matches

Win Ø 36%

45%

26%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

45%

70%

Both score Ø 60%

41%

78%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,32 xG 1,12

54% Possession 46%

18 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 9. · Frosinone 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	23	19	3	1	+43	+28.9	60
2	Juventus	23	16	5	2	+22	+18.6	53
3	Milan	23	15	4	4	+19	+8.9	49
4	Atalanta	22	12	3	7	+18	+9.3	39
5	Roma	24	11	5	8	+12	+10.9	38
6	Lazio	23	11	4	8	+4	+3.8	37
7	Bologna	22	9	9	4	+7	+4.2	36
8	Napoli	22	10	5	7	+6	+13.3	35
9	Fiorentina	22	10	4	8	+6	-1.3	34
10	Torino	23	8	9	6	+1	+1.7	33
11	Genoa	23	7	8	8	-2	-2.8	29
12	Monza	23	7	8	8	-7	-10.5	29
13	Lecce	23	5	9	9	-9	-10.0	24
14	Frosinone	23	6	5	12	-13	-9.6	23
15	Empoli	24	5	6	13	-19	-9.1	21
16	Sassuolo	23	5	5	13	-13	-8.7	20
17	Udinese	23	2	13	8	-14	-5.8	19
18	Verona	23	4	6	13	-11	-7.2	18
19	Cagliari	24	4	6	14	-23	-9.6	18
20	Salernitana	24	2	7	15	-27	-24.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	1	1	+20	+16.8	28
2	Atalanta	12	9	1	2	+19	+9.3	28
3	Roma	13	8	3	2	+17	+9.4	27
4	Juventus	11	8	3	0	+12	+10.8	27
5	Bologna	11	8	2	1	+11	+3.9	26
6	Milan	11	8	1	2	+13	+6.2	25
7	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+5	+5.2	21
8	Fiorentina	11	6	2	3	+6	+2.5	20
9	Torino	11	5	5	1	+6	+5.7	20
10	Frosinone	12	6	2	4	+3	-0.6	20
11	Lecce	12	5	4	3	-2	-0.9	19
12	Genoa	11	4	5	2	+2	-1.6	17
13	Napoli	11	5	2	4	+1	+8.2	17
14	Monza	11	4	4	3	+1	-3.5	16
15	Cagliari	12	4	3	5	-6	+3.1	15
16	Verona	11	3	4	4	-2	-0.7	13
17	Sassuolo	11	3	3	5	-2	-1.8	12
18	Udinese	12	1	7	4	-4	+1.1	10
19	Empoli	12	2	3	7	-9	-3.9	9
20	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-14	-10.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	2	0	+23	+12.0	32
2	Juventus	12	8	2	2	+10	+7.8	26
3	Milan	12	7	3	2	+6	+2.6	24
4	Napoli	11	5	3	3	+5	+5.1	18
5	Lazio	12	5	1	6	-1	-1.4	16
6	Fiorentina	11	4	2	5	+0	-3.7	14
7	Torino	12	3	4	5	-5	-4.0	13
8	Monza	12	3	4	5	-8	-7.0	13
9	Genoa	12	3	3	6	-4	-1.2	12
10	Empoli	12	3	3	6	-10	-5.3	12
11	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-1	+0.0	11
12	Roma	11	3	2	6	-5	+1.4	11
13	Bologna	11	1	7	3	-4	+0.4	10
14	Udinese	11	1	6	4	-10	-7.0	9
15	Sassuolo	12	2	2	8	-11	-6.8	8
16	Salernitana	11	1	3	7	-13	-14.9	6
17	Lecce	11	0	5	6	-7	-9.1	5
18	Verona	12	1	2	9	-9	-6.5	5
19	Frosinone	11	0	3	8	-16	-9.0	3
20	Cagliari	12	0	3	9	-17	-12.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.