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Super League

Referee: S Wolfensberger

Winterthur

S U S T S

2–1

Full-time

Luzern

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Luzern

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 41%

36%

45%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

77%

55%

Both score Ø 75%

86%

64%

Average goals

3,9

2,9

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

2,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,14 xG 1,85

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Winterthur 7. · Luzern 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	23	14	6	3	+28	+1.2	48
2	Servette	22	11	8	3	+13	+13.4	41
3	Zurich	23	9	9	5	+11	+2.3	36
4	St. Gallen	22	11	3	8	+7	+7.6	36
5	Lugano	23	10	4	9	+5	+5.5	34
6	Luzern	22	10	4	8	-1	+1.0	34
7	Winterthur	22	8	5	9	-6	-1.3	29
8	Yverdon	22	7	6	9	-15	-9.7	27
9	Grasshoppers	23	7	4	12	-1	-7.2	25
10	Basel	22	7	4	11	-8	-5.6	25
11	Lausanne	23	5	7	11	-8	+2.7	22
12	Lausanne Ouchy	23	3	6	14	-25	-10.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	11	9	2	0	+24	+3.7	29
2	St. Gallen	11	9	0	2	+12	+3.6	27
3	Luzern	11	8	1	2	+7	+3.2	25
4	Zurich	12	6	5	1	+8	+1.0	23
5	Servette	11	6	4	1	+10	+6.9	22
6	Yverdon	11	6	3	2	+2	-0.3	21
7	Lugano	12	5	3	4	+2	+2.4	18
8	Winterthur	11	5	3	3	+0	+1.7	18
9	Grasshoppers	11	5	2	4	+7	-1.9	17
10	Lausanne	11	4	3	4	+2	+0.7	15
11	Basel	11	4	2	5	+0	-3.1	14
12	Lausanne Ouchy	12	1	5	6	-15	-4.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	12	5	4	3	+4	-2.5	19
2	Servette	11	5	4	2	+3	+6.6	19
3	Lugano	11	5	1	5	+3	+3.2	16
4	Zurich	11	3	4	4	+3	+1.2	13
5	Winterthur	11	3	2	6	-6	-2.9	11
6	Basel	11	3	2	6	-8	-2.5	11
7	St. Gallen	11	2	3	6	-5	+4.0	9
8	Luzern	11	2	3	6	-8	-2.3	9
9	Grasshoppers	12	2	2	8	-8	-5.3	8
10	Lausanne	12	1	4	7	-10	+2.1	7
11	Lausanne Ouchy	11	2	1	8	-10	-6.0	7
12	Yverdon	11	1	3	7	-17	-9.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.