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Serie A

Referee: A Rapuano

Monza

T U S U S

0–1

Full-time

Milan

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 46%

36%

55%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

68%

Both score Ø 57%

45%

68%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,50 xG 2,25

59% Possession 41%

11 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 11. · Milan 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	23	20	2	1	+41	+4.4	62
2	Juventus	22	13	5	4	+17	+3.1	44
3	Inter	22	14	2	6	+15	+3.9	44
4	Atalanta	22	12	5	5	+17	+1.4	41
5	Roma	22	12	5	5	+10	+2.7	41
6	Milan	22	12	5	5	+8	-3.1	41
7	Lazio	22	11	6	5	+18	-0.5	39
8	Bologna	23	9	5	9	-3	-0.7	32
9	Udinese	22	7	9	6	+5	+1.0	30
10	Torino	22	8	6	8	-1	+0.3	30
11	Monza	22	8	5	9	-2	+0.2	29
12	Empoli	22	6	9	7	-7	-0.5	27
13	Lecce	22	5	9	8	-3	+0.1	24
14	Fiorentina	22	6	6	10	-6	+0.8	24
15	Sassuolo	23	6	6	11	-9	-0.2	24
16	Salernitana	22	5	6	11	-17	-3.3	21
17	Spezia	22	4	7	11	-18	-3.5	19
18	Verona	22	4	5	13	-13	-0.9	17
19	Sampdoria	23	2	5	16	-27	-1.8	11
20	Cremonese	22	0	8	14	-25	-3.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	10	1	0	+23	+1.8	31
2	Juventus	12	8	3	1	+17	+1.6	27
3	Inter	11	9	0	2	+17	+1.2	27
4	Milan	11	8	1	2	+9	-0.2	25
5	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+9	-0.2	21
6	Roma	10	6	1	3	+7	-0.5	19
7	Bologna	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.9	19
8	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+8	+1.0	17
9	Empoli	11	4	4	3	+0	-0.4	16
10	Udinese	11	3	6	2	+5	+2.1	15
11	Monza	11	4	3	4	+3	+0.9	15
12	Torino	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.1	15
13	Fiorentina	11	4	3	4	-2	+0.7	15
14	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	+0	-0.1	14
15	Verona	12	4	1	7	-4	+0.3	13
16	Lecce	11	2	6	3	-1	-1.1	12
17	Salernitana	11	3	3	5	-2	-2.4	12
18	Spezia	11	2	6	3	-4	-2.4	12
19	Cremonese	11	0	3	8	-14	-2.3	3
20	Sampdoria	12	0	3	9	-15	+0.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	1	1	+18	+2.5	31
2	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+9	+0.4	24
3	Roma	12	6	4	2	+3	+3.2	22
4	Lazio	10	5	3	2	+9	-0.3	18
5	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+0	+1.5	17
6	Inter	11	5	2	4	-2	+2.7	17
7	Milan	11	4	4	3	-1	-2.9	16
8	Udinese	11	4	3	4	+0	-1.1	15
9	Torino	12	4	3	5	-3	-0.8	15
10	Monza	11	4	2	5	-5	-0.8	14
11	Bologna	11	4	1	6	-9	-1.6	13
12	Lecce	11	3	3	5	-2	+1.2	12
13	Empoli	11	2	5	4	-7	-0.1	11
14	Sassuolo	12	2	4	6	-9	-0.1	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-4	+0.1	9
16	Salernitana	11	2	3	6	-15	-0.9	9
17	Sampdoria	11	2	2	7	-12	-1.9	8
18	Spezia	11	2	1	8	-14	-1.1	7
19	Cremonese	11	0	5	6	-11	-1.0	5
20	Verona	10	0	4	6	-9	-1.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.