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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Salernitana

T T U T T

0–2

Full-time

Monza

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salernitana Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 20%

32%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

68%

36%

Both score Ø 48%

56%

40%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,94 xG 2,40

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 11

0 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Salernitana 20. · Monza 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	24	20	3	1	+47	+32.8	63
2	Juventus	25	16	6	3	+21	+20.9	54
3	Milan	25	16	4	5	+18	+8.7	52
4	Bologna	26	13	9	4	+16	+7.1	48
5	Atalanta	24	14	3	7	+24	+13.4	45
6	Roma	25	12	5	8	+15	+11.2	41
7	Lazio	25	12	4	9	+5	+2.6	40
8	Fiorentina	25	11	5	9	+8	-1.6	38
9	Napoli	24	10	6	8	+5	+14.2	36
10	Torino	25	9	9	7	+1	+3.6	36
11	Monza	25	8	9	8	-5	-10.1	33
12	Genoa	25	7	9	9	-5	-5.2	30
13	Empoli	26	6	7	13	-18	-8.4	25
14	Lecce	25	5	9	11	-15	-11.3	24
15	Udinese	25	3	14	8	-13	-6.1	23
16	Frosinone	25	6	5	14	-20	-11.1	23
17	Verona	26	4	8	14	-13	-9.4	20
18	Sassuolo	25	5	5	15	-17	-11.9	20
19	Cagliari	25	4	7	14	-23	-10.4	19
20	Salernitana	25	2	7	16	-31	-28.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bologna	14	11	2	1	+19	+6.5	35
2	Inter	12	10	1	1	+24	+20.8	31
3	Atalanta	13	10	1	2	+22	+12.1	31
4	Milan	12	9	1	2	+14	+6.5	28
5	Roma	13	8	3	2	+17	+9.4	27
6	Juventus	12	8	3	1	+11	+11.8	27
7	Fiorentina	12	7	2	3	+10	+3.7	23
8	Torino	13	6	5	2	+6	+7.6	23
9	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+4	+4.9	21
10	Monza	13	5	5	3	+3	-3.1	20
11	Frosinone	13	6	2	5	+0	-1.0	20
12	Lecce	12	5	4	3	-2	-0.9	19
13	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+1	+9.3	18
14	Genoa	12	4	5	3	-1	-2.9	17
15	Cagliari	12	4	3	5	-6	+3.1	15
16	Verona	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.0	14
17	Sassuolo	12	3	3	6	-3	-2.3	12
18	Udinese	13	1	8	4	-4	+1.9	11
19	Empoli	13	2	4	7	-9	-3.6	10
20	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-14	-10.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	2	0	+23	+12.0	32
2	Juventus	13	8	3	2	+10	+9.1	27
3	Milan	13	7	3	3	+4	+2.2	24
4	Lazio	13	6	1	6	+1	-2.4	19
5	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+4	+4.9	18
6	Fiorentina	13	4	3	6	-2	-5.3	15
7	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-9	-4.8	15
8	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	+2	+1.3	14
9	Roma	12	4	2	6	-2	+1.8	14
10	Bologna	12	2	7	3	-3	+0.6	13
11	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-2.3	13
12	Torino	12	3	4	5	-5	-4.0	13
13	Monza	12	3	4	5	-8	-7.0	13
14	Udinese	12	2	6	4	-9	-8.0	12
15	Sassuolo	13	2	2	9	-14	-9.6	8
16	Verona	14	1	3	10	-11	-7.4	6
17	Salernitana	12	1	3	8	-17	-18.9	6
18	Lecce	13	0	5	8	-13	-10.4	5
19	Cagliari	13	0	4	9	-17	-13.4	4
20	Frosinone	12	0	3	9	-20	-10.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.