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Premier League

Referee: S Barrott

Aston Villa

T S T T S

4–2

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 42%

60%

24%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

72%

56%

Both score Ø 66%

68%

64%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

2,1

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,57 xG 2,56

58% Possession 42%

16 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 4. · Nott'm Forest 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	26	18	6	2	+38	+26.5	60
2	Man City	25	17	5	3	+32	+27.2	56
3	Arsenal	25	17	4	4	+36	+32.8	55
4	Aston Villa	25	15	4	6	+19	+11.1	49
5	Tottenham	25	14	5	6	+14	+0.4	47
6	Man United	25	14	2	9	+1	-3.2	44
7	Brighton	25	10	8	7	+8	+6.2	38
8	Newcastle	25	11	4	10	+12	+4.3	37
9	West Ham	25	10	6	9	-8	-12.9	36
10	Chelsea	25	10	5	10	+1	+8.9	35
11	Wolves	25	10	5	10	-1	-7.8	35
12	Everton	25	8	6	11	-6	+4.0	30
13	Fulham	25	8	5	12	-7	-12.8	29
14	Bournemouth	24	7	7	10	-13	-3.6	28
15	Brentford	25	7	4	14	-9	+3.4	25
16	Crystal Palace	25	6	7	12	-16	-9.5	25
17	Nott'm Forest	25	6	6	13	-12	-5.2	24
18	Luton	25	5	5	15	-16	-21.4	20
19	Burnley	25	3	4	18	-30	-21.5	13
20	Sheffield United	25	3	4	18	-43	-27.2	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	11	2	0	+26	+26.0	35
2	Man City	13	9	4	0	+20	+12.4	31
3	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+19	+19.6	29
4	Aston Villa	12	9	1	2	+18	+11.7	28
5	Tottenham	13	9	0	4	+8	+3.6	27
6	Newcastle	13	8	2	3	+15	+12.3	26
7	Brighton	12	6	5	1	+11	+7.2	23
8	Fulham	13	7	1	5	+8	+2.4	22
9	Man United	12	7	1	4	+0	+1.0	22
10	West Ham	12	5	4	3	+1	-7.2	19
11	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+2	+10.2	18
12	Wolves	12	5	3	4	-1	-3.6	18
13	Nott'm Forest	13	4	3	6	-1	+2.4	15
14	Brentford	13	4	3	6	-5	+2.5	15
15	Everton	13	3	4	6	-1	+8.1	13
16	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-5	-0.7	13
17	Crystal Palace	12	3	3	6	-4	-1.6	12
18	Luton	13	3	2	8	-3	-2.5	11
19	Sheffield United	13	2	2	9	-24	-12.2	8
20	Burnley	13	1	2	10	-19	-7.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	8	2	3	+17	+13.1	26
2	Man City	12	8	1	3	+12	+14.8	25
3	Liverpool	13	7	4	2	+12	+0.5	25
4	Man United	13	7	1	5	+1	-4.2	22
5	Aston Villa	13	6	3	4	+1	-0.6	21
6	Tottenham	12	5	5	2	+6	-3.3	20
7	Wolves	13	5	2	6	+0	-4.2	17
8	Chelsea	13	5	2	6	-1	-1.3	17
9	Everton	12	5	2	5	-5	-4.1	17
10	West Ham	13	5	2	6	-9	-5.6	17
11	Brighton	13	4	3	6	-3	-1.1	15
12	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-8	-2.8	15
13	Crystal Palace	13	3	4	6	-12	-7.9	13
14	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-3	-8.0	11
15	Brentford	12	3	1	8	-4	+0.9	10
16	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-11	-7.5	9
17	Luton	12	2	3	7	-13	-18.8	9
18	Burnley	12	2	2	8	-11	-14.1	8
19	Fulham	12	1	4	7	-15	-15.2	7
20	Sheffield United	12	1	2	9	-19	-15.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.