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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Monza

U U T S T

1–1

Full-time

Roma

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,12 xG 1,07

34% Possession 66%

3 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 20. · Roma 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	5	1	1	+9	+4.7	16
2	Inter	7	4	2	1	+7	+4.7	14
3	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+9	+5.7	13
4	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+3	+4.6	13
5	Udinese	7	4	1	2	+0	-3.8	13
6	Milan	6	3	2	1	+7	+4.7	11
7	Torino	7	3	2	2	+1	-3.3	11
8	Atalanta	7	3	1	3	+3	+6.3	10
9	Empoli	7	2	4	1	+2	-3.3	10
10	Roma	6	2	3	1	+3	+1.3	9
11	Verona	7	3	0	4	+0	-1.6	9
12	Bologna	7	1	5	1	-2	-0.9	8
13	Como	7	2	2	3	-4	-0.9	8
14	Fiorentina	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.3	7
15	Parma	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.9	6
16	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.3	6
17	Lecce	7	1	2	4	-9	-3.5	5
18	Genoa	7	1	2	4	-10	-6.8	5
19	Venezia	7	1	1	5	-7	-4.6	4
20	Monza	6	0	3	3	-4	-4.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+8	+4.7	12
2	Lazio	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.5	10
3	Inter	4	3	0	1	+6	+2.0	9
4	Udinese	4	3	0	1	+2	-2.2	9
5	Milan	3	2	1	0	+7	+4.3	7
6	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.4	6
7	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.5	6
8	Juventus	4	1	3	0	+3	+2.5	6
9	Verona	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.1	6
10	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	+3.8	5
11	Como	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
12	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
13	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
14	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.0	4
15	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.9	4
16	Venezia	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
17	Empoli	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.6	3
18	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.0	2
19	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.1	2
20	Monza	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.3	7
2	Empoli	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.7	7
3	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.0	7
4	Inter	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.7	5
5	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.0	4
6	Milan	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.4	4
7	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.2	4
8	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.9	4
9	Udinese	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
10	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
11	Como	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.0	4
12	Verona	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.5	3
13	Roma	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
14	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
15	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-5	-3.8	3
16	Fiorentina	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
17	Parma	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.1	2
18	Monza	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.8	2
19	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
20	Venezia	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.