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Serie A
Referee: S Sozza
Genoa
U T T S U
2–2
Full-time
Cagliari
S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Cagliari
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,3
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
42%
42%
Both score Ø 46%
42%
50%
Average goals
2,6
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
1,8
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,1
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,76 xG 3,01
52% Possession 48%
20 Shots 17
6 Shots on target 6
6 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 8
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Genoa 17. · Cagliari 16.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Atalanta 13 9 1 3 +18 +12.7 28
2 Inter 13 8 4 1 +17 +11.3 28
3 Napoli 12 8 2 2 +10 +6.5 26
4 Fiorentina 12 7 4 1 +15 +8.3 25
5 Juventus 13 6 7 0 +14 +9.6 25
6 Lazio 12 8 1 3 +11 +10.7 25
7 Milan 12 5 4 3 +6 +9.0 19
8 Bologna 11 4 6 1 +2 +0.5 18
9 Udinese 12 5 1 6 -3 -6.3 16
10 Empoli 12 3 6 3 -1 -7.3 15
11 Torino 12 4 2 6 -3 -5.4 14
12 Roma 12 3 4 5 -3 -1.1 13
13 Parma 13 2 6 5 -4 -3.5 12
14 Verona 13 4 0 9 -15 -10.5 12
15 Como 12 2 4 6 -10 -1.8 10
16 Cagliari 12 2 4 6 -10 -5.7 10
17 Genoa 12 2 4 6 -13 -8.7 10
18 Lecce 12 2 3 7 -16 -6.0 9
19 Monza 12 1 5 6 -5 -6.5 8
20 Venezia 12 2 2 8 -10 -5.7 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Genoa Cagliari
7′
ℹ️ Yerry Mina
VAR: Penalty confirmed
8′
R. Marin 0–1
1–1 M. Frendrup
12′
Half-time 2–1
2–1 F. Miretti
M. Thorsby
59′
64′
🔁 L. Pavoletti
↦ N. Zortea
64′
🔁 A. Obert
↦ T. Augello
66′
🟨 Răzvan Marin
Junior Messias 🔁
↦ S. Sabelli
68′
68′
🔁 A. Makoumbou
↦ R. Marin
76′
🔁 A. Deiola
↦ M. Adopo
76′
🔁 N. Viola
↦ G. Gaetano
J. Vásquez 🔁
↦ F. Miretti
77′
A. Vogliacco 🔁
↦ A. Zanoli
77′
Aarón Martín 🟨
79′
Mattia Bani 🟨
87′
88′
R. Piccoli 2–2
Vítinha 🔁
↦ Aarón Martín
89′
M. Balotelli 🔁
↦ A. Pinamonti
89′
93′
🟥 Nicolas Viola
VAR: Red card cancelled
94′
🟨 Nicolas Viola
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Genoa

4-5-1
1 N. Leali G
20 S. Sabelli D
13 M. Bani D
33 A. Matturro D
3 Aarón Martín D
59 A. Zanoli M
2 M. Thorsby M
47 M. Badelj M
32 M. Frendrup M
23 F. Miretti M
19 A. Pinamonti F
Bench (15)
10 Junior Messias
22 J. Vásquez
14 A. Vogliacco
9 Vítinha
45 M. Balotelli
72 F. Melegoni
15 B. Norton-Cuffy
73 P. Masini
55 F. Accornero
11 G. Pereiro
95 P. Gollini
30 D. Ankeye
8 E. Bohinen
39 D. Sommariva
27 A. Marcandalli

Coach: P. Vieira

Cagliari

4-2-3-1
71 A. Sherri G
28 G. Zappa D
26 Y. Mina D
6 S. Luperto D
3 T. Augello D
8 M. Adopo M
18 R. Marin M
19 N. Zortea M
70 G. Gaetano M
77 Zito Luvumbo M
91 R. Piccoli F
Bench (15)
30 L. Pavoletti
33 A. Obert
29 A. Makoumbou
14 A. Deiola
10 N. Viola
97 M. Felici
1 G. Ciocci
9 G. Lapadula
23 M. Wieteska
37 Paulo Azzi
24 J. Palomino
21 J. Jankto
80 K. Mutandwa
16 M. Prati
22 S. Scuffet

Coach: D. Nicola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,63
U ✓
3,17
B
2,87
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,20
U2,5
1,69
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Sozza · 115 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.