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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Napoli

S S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Roma

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 46%

67%

25%

Points per game

2,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

25%

58%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,98 xG 0,58

63% Possession 37%

14 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 4. · Roma 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	13	9	1	3	+18	+12.7	28
2	Inter	13	8	4	1	+17	+11.3	28
3	Fiorentina	13	8	4	1	+17	+8.1	28
4	Napoli	12	8	2	2	+10	+6.5	26
5	Juventus	13	6	7	0	+14	+9.6	25
6	Lazio	12	8	1	3	+11	+10.7	25
7	Milan	12	5	4	3	+6	+9.0	19
8	Bologna	11	4	6	1	+2	+0.5	18
9	Udinese	12	5	1	6	-3	-6.3	16
10	Empoli	12	3	6	3	-1	-7.3	15
11	Torino	13	4	3	6	-3	-5.3	15
12	Roma	12	3	4	5	-3	-1.1	13
13	Parma	13	2	6	5	-4	-3.5	12
14	Verona	13	4	0	9	-15	-10.5	12
15	Cagliari	13	2	5	6	-10	-4.5	11
16	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-13	-10.0	11
17	Como	13	2	4	7	-12	-1.6	10
18	Monza	13	1	6	6	-5	-6.6	9
19	Lecce	12	2	3	7	-16	-6.0	9
20	Venezia	12	2	2	8	-10	-5.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	6	5	1	0	+8	+9.1	16
2	Atalanta	6	5	0	1	+12	+6.7	15
3	Napoli	6	5	0	1	+6	+6.2	15
4	Fiorentina	6	4	2	0	+8	+7.2	14
5	Inter	7	4	2	1	+7	+5.0	14
6	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+6	+6.3	13
7	Udinese	6	4	0	2	+2	-2.3	12
8	Milan	6	3	2	1	+6	+4.5	11
9	Roma	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.5	9
10	Verona	7	3	0	4	-7	-4.0	9
11	Torino	6	2	2	2	+0	-3.3	8
12	Lecce	6	2	2	2	-8	-0.6	8
13	Bologna	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.6	7
14	Venezia	5	2	0	3	-1	+1.8	6
15	Empoli	6	1	3	2	-3	-1.9	6
16	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-7	-1.3	6
17	Parma	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.7	5
18	Como	5	1	2	2	-5	-0.1	5
19	Genoa	8	0	5	3	-6	-4.5	5
20	Monza	7	0	3	4	-4	-3.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.3	14
2	Fiorentina	7	4	2	1	+9	+0.9	14
3	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+6.0	13
4	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+8	+3.2	12
5	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.3	11
6	Bologna	6	3	2	1	+1	-1.1	11
7	Lazio	6	3	0	3	+3	+1.6	9
8	Empoli	6	2	3	1	+2	-5.3	9
9	Milan	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.5	8
10	Parma	6	1	4	1	+0	-1.8	7
11	Torino	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.0	7
12	Monza	6	1	3	2	-1	-3.5	6
13	Genoa	5	2	0	3	-7	-5.5	6
14	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-3.2	5
15	Como	8	1	2	5	-7	-1.5	5
16	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-5	-3.9	4
17	Roma	6	0	4	2	-5	-1.6	4
18	Verona	6	1	0	5	-8	-6.5	3
19	Venezia	7	0	2	5	-9	-7.5	2
20	Lecce	6	0	1	5	-8	-5.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.