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Serie A

Referee: M Marchetti

Como

U T T T U

0–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Como Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

17%

58%

Points per game

0,8

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

58%

Both score Ø 63%

67%

58%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

1,1

2,1

Conceded

1,9

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,14 xG 0,96

57% Possession 43%

10 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Como 17. · Fiorentina 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	13	9	1	3	+18	+12.7	28
2	Inter	13	8	4	1	+17	+11.3	28
3	Napoli	12	8	2	2	+10	+6.5	26
4	Fiorentina	12	7	4	1	+15	+8.3	25
5	Juventus	13	6	7	0	+14	+9.6	25
6	Lazio	12	8	1	3	+11	+10.7	25
7	Milan	12	5	4	3	+6	+9.0	19
8	Bologna	11	4	6	1	+2	+0.5	18
9	Udinese	12	5	1	6	-3	-6.3	16
10	Empoli	12	3	6	3	-1	-7.3	15
11	Torino	12	4	2	6	-3	-5.4	14
12	Roma	12	3	4	5	-3	-1.1	13
13	Parma	13	2	6	5	-4	-3.5	12
14	Verona	13	4	0	9	-15	-10.5	12
15	Cagliari	13	2	5	6	-10	-4.5	11
16	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-13	-10.0	11
17	Como	12	2	4	6	-10	-1.8	10
18	Lecce	12	2	3	7	-16	-6.0	9
19	Monza	12	1	5	6	-5	-6.5	8
20	Venezia	12	2	2	8	-10	-5.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	6	5	1	0	+8	+9.1	16
2	Atalanta	6	5	0	1	+12	+6.7	15
3	Napoli	6	5	0	1	+6	+6.2	15
4	Fiorentina	6	4	2	0	+8	+7.2	14
5	Inter	7	4	2	1	+7	+5.0	14
6	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+6	+6.3	13
7	Udinese	6	4	0	2	+2	-2.3	12
8	Milan	6	3	2	1	+6	+4.5	11
9	Roma	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.5	9
10	Verona	7	3	0	4	-7	-4.0	9
11	Lecce	6	2	2	2	-8	-0.6	8
12	Bologna	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.6	7
13	Torino	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.4	7
14	Venezia	5	2	0	3	-1	+1.8	6
15	Empoli	6	1	3	2	-3	-1.9	6
16	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-7	-1.3	6
17	Como	4	1	2	1	-3	-0.3	5
18	Parma	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.7	5
19	Genoa	8	0	5	3	-6	-4.5	5
20	Monza	7	0	3	4	-4	-3.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.3	14
2	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+6.0	13
3	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+8	+3.2	12
4	Fiorentina	6	3	2	1	+7	+1.1	11
5	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.3	11
6	Bologna	6	3	2	1	+1	-1.1	11
7	Lazio	6	3	0	3	+3	+1.6	9
8	Empoli	6	2	3	1	+2	-5.3	9
9	Milan	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.5	8
10	Parma	6	1	4	1	+0	-1.8	7
11	Torino	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.0	7
12	Genoa	5	2	0	3	-7	-5.5	6
13	Monza	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.3	5
14	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-3.2	5
15	Como	8	1	2	5	-7	-1.5	5
16	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-5	-3.9	4
17	Roma	6	0	4	2	-5	-1.6	4
18	Verona	6	1	0	5	-8	-6.5	3
19	Venezia	7	0	2	5	-9	-7.5	2
20	Lecce	6	0	1	5	-8	-5.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.