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Serie A

Referee: S Sozza

Fiorentina

U S S S S

5–1

Full-time

Roma

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

1,7

Scored

2,7

0,8

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

38%

25%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

63%

38%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

2,9

1,8

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,73 xG 0,65

39% Possession 61%

21 Shots 14

10 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fiorentina 9. · Roma 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	9	7	1	1	+11	+7.5	22
2	Inter	9	5	3	1	+8	+5.5	18
3	Juventus	9	4	5	0	+10	+6.2	17
4	Atalanta	9	5	1	3	+10	+9.1	16
5	Lazio	9	5	1	3	+5	+5.2	16
6	Udinese	9	5	1	3	+1	-4.0	16
7	Milan	8	4	2	2	+7	+6.7	14
8	Torino	9	4	2	3	+1	-3.6	14
9	Fiorentina	8	3	4	1	+7	+4.2	13
10	Empoli	9	2	5	2	+1	-5.6	11
11	Roma	8	2	4	2	+2	+1.2	10
12	Bologna	8	1	6	1	-2	-0.6	9
13	Como	9	2	3	4	-5	-0.0	9
14	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-7	-1.7	9
15	Verona	9	3	0	6	-8	-4.2	9
16	Monza	9	1	5	3	-1	-3.5	8
17	Parma	9	1	5	3	-2	-0.0	8
18	Genoa	9	1	3	5	-13	-9.0	6
19	Venezia	9	1	2	6	-9	-5.8	5
20	Lecce	9	1	2	6	-16	-7.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+9	+6.7	15
2	Lazio	5	4	1	0	+7	+6.4	13
3	Udinese	5	4	0	1	+4	-1.6	12
4	Milan	4	3	1	0	+8	+5.0	10
5	Inter	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.8	10
6	Atalanta	4	3	0	1	+9	+5.6	9
7	Juventus	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.7	9
8	Fiorentina	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.6	8
9	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.4	7
10	Roma	4	2	0	2	+2	+0.5	6
11	Verona	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.6	6
12	Como	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.9	5
13	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.6	5
14	Cagliari	5	1	2	2	-5	+0.1	5
15	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
16	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-9	-3.0	4
17	Venezia	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
18	Empoli	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.3	3
19	Monza	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.2	3
20	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-5	-3.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+6	+2.4	8
2	Empoli	5	2	2	1	+2	-4.3	8
3	Inter	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.7	8
4	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.7	7
5	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+1	+3.5	7
6	Torino	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.2	7
7	Fiorentina	4	1	2	1	+5	+1.6	5
8	Monza	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.3	5
9	Bologna	4	1	2	1	-2	-1.3	5
10	Roma	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
11	Milan	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
12	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
13	Udinese	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.3	4
14	Como	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.9	4
15	Parma	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.6	3
16	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-2	-1.2	3
17	Verona	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.6	3
18	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.7	3
19	Venezia	6	0	2	4	-8	-6.2	2
20	Lecce	5	0	1	4	-7	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.