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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Atalanta

U T S U S

0–2

Full-time

Inter

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 63%

61%

64%

Points per game

2,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

61%

Both score Ø 52%

54%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

2,3

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,66 xG 2,39

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Atalanta 3. · Inter 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	28	18	7	3	+36	+27.3	61
2	Napoli	29	18	7	4	+22	+19.4	61
3	Atalanta	28	17	7	4	+37	+24.3	58
4	Bologna	29	14	11	4	+15	+12.3	53
5	Juventus	29	13	13	3	+17	+12.5	52
6	Lazio	29	15	6	8	+9	+11.6	51
7	Roma	29	14	7	8	+14	+9.8	49
8	Fiorentina	29	14	6	9	+16	+4.8	48
9	Milan	29	13	8	8	+11	+17.1	47
10	Udinese	29	11	7	11	-4	-7.2	40
11	Torino	29	9	11	9	+0	-13.7	38
12	Genoa	29	8	11	10	-9	-6.3	35
13	Como	29	7	8	14	-11	+0.5	29
14	Verona	29	9	2	18	-29	-16.8	29
15	Cagliari	29	6	8	15	-16	-11.9	26
16	Parma	29	5	10	14	-14	-14.4	25
17	Lecce	29	6	7	16	-27	-20.0	25
18	Empoli	29	4	10	15	-23	-14.8	22
19	Venezia	29	3	11	15	-19	-17.8	20
20	Monza	29	2	9	18	-25	-16.7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	3	1	+16	+13.6	33
2	Bologna	15	9	5	1	+16	+15.0	32
3	Napoli	14	10	2	2	+11	+15.7	32
4	Roma	15	10	1	4	+18	+9.2	31
5	Fiorentina	15	9	3	3	+11	+7.5	30
6	Juventus	15	7	7	1	+10	+7.8	28
7	Milan	15	7	6	2	+11	+10.0	27
8	Lazio	14	7	5	2	+8	+8.4	26
9	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+13	+11.7	25
10	Udinese	15	7	2	6	+1	-3.2	23
11	Torino	14	5	5	4	+1	-6.4	20
12	Como	14	5	4	5	+0	+1.7	19
13	Genoa	15	4	7	4	-1	-1.8	19
14	Parma	15	4	4	7	-3	-2.1	16
15	Cagliari	15	4	4	7	-8	-2.6	16
16	Venezia	14	3	5	6	-3	-2.5	14
17	Lecce	14	3	5	6	-14	-6.7	14
18	Verona	14	4	1	9	-19	-5.3	13
19	Monza	15	1	5	9	-9	-4.8	8
20	Empoli	14	1	5	8	-15	-7.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	15	10	3	2	+24	+12.6	33
2	Napoli	15	8	5	2	+11	+3.6	29
3	Inter	14	8	4	2	+20	+13.7	28
4	Lazio	15	8	1	6	+1	+3.2	25
5	Juventus	14	6	6	2	+7	+4.7	24
6	Bologna	14	5	6	3	-1	-2.7	21
7	Milan	14	6	2	6	+0	+7.1	20
8	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+5	-2.7	18
9	Torino	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.3	18
10	Roma	14	4	6	4	-4	+0.6	18
11	Udinese	14	4	5	5	-5	-4.0	17
12	Genoa	14	4	4	6	-8	-4.5	16
13	Verona	15	5	1	9	-10	-11.5	16
14	Empoli	15	3	5	7	-8	-7.5	14
15	Lecce	15	3	2	10	-13	-13.3	11
16	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-8	-9.3	10
17	Como	15	2	4	9	-11	-1.2	10
18	Parma	14	1	6	7	-11	-12.4	9
19	Monza	14	1	4	9	-16	-11.9	7
20	Venezia	15	0	6	9	-16	-15.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.