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Serie A

Referee: Giuseppe Collu

Milan

U U S U S

1–0

Full-time

Lazio

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,5

1,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 50%

58%

42%

Points per game

2,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 29%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,47 xG 0,68

46% Possession 54%

16 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Lazio 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	12	9	0	3	+9	+2.9	27
2	Milan	12	7	4	1	+9	+4.2	25
3	Napoli	12	8	1	3	+8	+4.0	25
4	Inter	12	8	0	4	+13	+13.0	24
5	Bologna	12	7	3	2	+13	+4.1	24
6	Como	13	6	6	1	+12	+5.3	24
7	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+5	+8.1	23
8	Lazio	12	5	3	4	+6	-3.3	18
9	Udinese	13	5	3	5	-6	-2.2	18
10	Sassuolo	13	5	2	6	+0	-4.3	17
11	Cremonese	12	3	5	4	-3	-7.3	14
12	Torino	12	3	5	4	-10	-5.7	14
13	Atalanta	12	2	7	3	+0	+3.8	13
14	Cagliari	13	2	5	6	-6	-8.4	11
15	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-7	+2.0	11
16	Parma	13	2	5	6	-8	-3.7	11
17	Pisa	12	1	7	4	-6	-4.3	10
18	Lecce	12	2	4	6	-8	-6.0	10
19	Fiorentina	12	0	6	6	-9	-2.3	6
20	Verona	13	0	6	7	-12	+0.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+7	+0.3	16
2	Inter	7	5	0	2	+12	+9.4	15
3	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
4	Juventus	7	4	3	0	+6	+6.2	15
5	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+8	+2.4	13
6	Bologna	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.6	13
7	Milan	6	4	1	1	+3	+2.7	13
8	Roma	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.0	12
9	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-4	+0.8	8
10	Torino	6	2	2	2	-5	-3.9	8
11	Atalanta	6	1	4	1	+0	+5.0	7
12	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	-1.6	7
13	Pisa	6	1	3	2	-1	-1.3	6
14	Cremonese	6	1	3	2	-2	-0.7	6
15	Parma	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.4	6
16	Genoa	7	1	3	3	-5	+1.8	6
17	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
18	Verona	6	0	3	3	-3	+1.4	3
19	Lecce	6	0	3	3	-4	-1.9	3
20	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	6	5	0	1	+5	+0.9	15
2	Milan	6	3	3	0	+6	+1.4	12
3	Bologna	7	3	2	2	+5	-1.6	11
4	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	-2.7	10
5	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-2	-3.0	10
6	Como	6	2	3	1	+4	+1.9	9
7	Inter	5	3	0	2	+1	+3.6	9
8	Napoli	6	3	0	3	+1	+3.7	9
9	Cremonese	6	2	2	2	-1	-6.6	8
10	Juventus	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.0	8
11	Lecce	6	2	1	3	-4	-4.1	7
12	Atalanta	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.2	6
13	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-3	-3.9	6
14	Torino	6	1	3	2	-5	-1.9	6
15	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.3	5
16	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-2	-5.7	5
17	Parma	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.3	5
18	Fiorentina	6	0	4	2	-4	-2.2	4
19	Pisa	6	0	4	2	-5	-3.1	4
20	Verona	7	0	3	4	-9	-1.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.