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Championship
Referee: Sam Allison
Portsmouth
T U T S T
0–1
Full-time
Bristol City
T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portsmouth Bristol City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 33%
24%
41%
Points per game
1,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
47%
47%
Both score Ø 50%
47%
53%
Average goals
2,3
2,6
Scored
0,9
1,5
Conceded
1,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,47 xG 1,60
50% Possession 50%
13 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 7
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 4
2 Offside 6
11 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Portsmouth 21. · Bristol City 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Coventry 17 12 4 1 +30 +17.5 40
2 Stoke 17 9 3 5 +13 -0.0 30
3 Middlesbrough 16 8 5 3 +4 +2.7 29
4 Millwall 17 8 4 5 -4 +3.1 28
5 Ipswich 17 7 6 4 +11 +15.5 27
6 Preston 17 7 6 4 +5 -0.8 27
7 Bristol City 17 7 5 5 +5 +1.4 26
8 Derby 17 7 5 5 +1 -6.0 26
9 Birmingham 17 7 4 6 +6 +11.8 25
10 Wrexham 17 6 7 4 +3 -5.5 25
11 Hull 17 7 4 6 -1 -11.5 25
12 QPR 17 7 4 6 -4 +2.0 25
13 Watford 17 6 6 5 +2 +4.0 24
14 Leicester 17 6 6 5 +0 -3.4 24
15 Southampton 16 6 5 5 +4 +9.1 23
16 Charlton 17 6 5 6 -3 -6.6 23
17 West Brom 17 6 4 7 -3 -0.6 22
18 Blackburn 16 6 1 9 -5 +4.2 19
19 Oxford 18 4 6 8 -5 -5.2 18
20 Swansea 17 4 5 8 -8 -7.6 17
21 Portsmouth 17 4 5 8 -9 -6.7 17
22 Sheffield United 17 5 1 11 -9 +3.8 16
23 Norwich 17 2 4 11 -12 -7.6 10
24 Sheffield Weds 17 1 5 11 -21 -13.6 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Portsmouth Bristol City
17′
A. Mehmeti 0–1
Neto Borges
Andre Dozzell 🟨
31′
Half-time 0–1
Regan Poole 🟨
49′
Josh Murphy 🟨
52′
M. Kosznovszky 🔁
↦ A. Dozzell
52′
62′
🔁 S. Armstrong
↦ E. Riis
M. Kirk 🔁
↦ C. Lang
72′
J. Swift 🔁
↦ J. Williams
81′
Yang Min-Hyuk 🔁
↦ A. Segecic
81′
C. Chaplin 🔁
↦ Z. Swanson
82′
93′
🔁 Y. Hirakawa
↦ S. Twine
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Portsmouth

4-2-3-1
1 N. Schmid G
2 J. Williams D
4 J. Knight D
5 R. Poole D
22 Z. Swanson D
7 M. Pack M
21 A. Dozzell M
49 C. Lang M
10 A. Segecic M
23 J. Murphy M
9 C. Bishop F
Bench (9)
26 J. Bursik
14 H. Matthews
17 I. Bowat
8 J. Swift
18 M. Kosznovszky
11 F. Bianchini
36 C. Chaplin
47 Yang Min-Hyuk
25 M. Kirk

Coach: John Mousinho

Bristol City

3-4-1-2
23 R. Vitek G
19 G. Tanner D
16 R. Dickie D
14 Z. Vyner D
2 R. McCrorie M
4 A. Randell M
17 M. Sykes M
21 Neto Borges M
10 S. Twine F
18 E. Riis F
11 A. Mehmeti F
Bench (9)
1 M. O'Leary
3 C. Pring
24 H. Roberts
31 E. Morrison
34 J. Meerholz
7 Y. Hirakawa
9 F. Mayulu
30 S. Armstrong
25 E. Yeboah

Coach: Gerhard Struber

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,83
U
3,33
B ✓
2,46
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,98
U2,5 ✓
1,77
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Sam Allison · 13 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.