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Ligue 1
Referee: Clement Turpin
Monaco
T S T T U
1–0
Full-time
Paris SG
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,0
3,7
Scored
1,7
2,3
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 58%
46%
69%
Points per game
1,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
69%
38%
Both score Ø 58%
77%
38%
Average goals
3,8
2,9
Scored
1,9
2,1
Conceded
1,9
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,52 xG 1,33
43% Possession 57%
10 Shots 17
5 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 4
3 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Monaco 8. · Paris SG 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 13 9 3 1 +16 +11.7 30
2 Marseille 13 9 1 3 +21 +12.1 28
3 Lens 13 9 1 3 +11 +4.5 28
4 Rennes 14 6 6 2 +6 -0.5 24
5 Lille 13 7 2 4 +10 +9.5 23
6 Strasbourg 13 7 1 5 +7 +7.1 22
7 Lyon 13 6 3 4 +3 +5.8 21
8 Monaco 13 6 2 5 +0 +4.9 20
9 Nice 13 5 2 6 -5 -9.9 17
10 Toulouse 13 4 4 5 +1 +1.9 16
11 Angers 13 4 4 5 -4 -12.1 16
12 Paris FC 13 4 2 7 -5 -3.8 14
13 Le Havre 13 3 5 5 -7 -1.7 14
14 Brest 13 3 4 6 -6 +0.4 13
15 Nantes 13 2 5 6 -7 -11.0 11
16 Lorient 13 2 5 6 -12 -2.8 11
17 Metz 14 3 2 9 -17 -10.8 11
18 Auxerre 13 2 2 9 -12 -5.5 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Monaco Paris SG
Lamine Camara 🟨
12′
33′
🟨 Vitinha
Half-time 0–0
64′
🔁 Q. Ndjantou
↦ S. Mayulu
64′
🔁 O. Dembele
↦ Lee Kang-In
K. Diatta 🔁
↦ Vanderson
65′
1–0 T. Minamino
A. Golovin
68′
A. Fati 🔁
↦ A. Golovin
72′
76′
🔁 I. Mbaye
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
Thilo Kehrer 🟥
80′
Thilo Kehrer ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
80′
83′
🔁 G. Ramos
↦ F. Ruiz
M. Biereth 🔁
↦ F. Balogun
85′
P. Pogba 🔁
↦ T. Minamino
86′
Krépin Diatta 🟨
88′
Jordan Teze 🟨
95′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Monaco

4-2-3-1
1 L. Hradecky G
2 Vanderson D
5 T. Kehrer D
22 M. Salisu D
13 Caio Henrique D
4 J. Teze M
15 L. Camara M
11 M. Akliouche M
18 T. Minamino M
10 A. Golovin M
9 F. Balogun F
Bench (9)
16 P. Kohn
27 K. Diatta
20 K. Ouattara
28 M. Coulibaly
8 P. Pogba
17 S. Idumbo
14 M. Biereth
31 A. Fati
19 G. Ilenikhena

Coach: Adi Hütter

Paris SG

4-3-3
30 L. Chevalier G
33 W. Zaire-Emery D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
21 L. Hernandez D
87 J. Neves M
17 Vitinha M
8 F. Ruiz M
19 Lee Kang-In F
24 S. Mayulu F
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (9)
39 M. Safonov
4 L. Beraldo
6 I. Zabarnyi
42 D. Boly
47 Q. Ndjantou
49 I. Mbaye
10 O. Dembele
29 B. Barcola
9 G. Ramos

Coach: Luis Enrique Martínez García

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,95
U
4,47
B
1,57
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,41
U2,5 ✓
2,75
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Clement Turpin · 69 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.