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Super League

Referee: U Schnyder

Lugano

S S T U U

4–2

Full-time

Servette

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Servette

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

0,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 38%

44%

31%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

56%

69%

Average goals

2,6

3,6

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

1,51 xG 1,49

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 6. · Servette 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	17	11	1	5	+11	-2.6	34
2	St. Gallen	17	10	1	6	+13	+2.1	31
3	Young Boys	17	8	5	4	+7	+0.6	29
4	Basel	16	8	3	5	+7	+11.5	27
5	Sion	17	7	6	4	+6	+5.5	27
6	Lugano	16	7	3	6	-1	-0.5	24
7	Zurich	17	7	3	7	-4	+3.4	24
8	Lausanne	16	5	5	6	+4	+6.3	20
9	Servette	16	5	4	7	-4	+1.3	19
10	Luzern	17	4	6	7	-3	-3.0	18
11	Grasshoppers	17	3	5	9	-12	-12.4	14
12	Winterthur	17	2	4	11	-24	-12.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	8	5	2	1	+12	+7.3	17
2	Thun	9	5	1	3	+5	-2.3	16
3	St. Gallen	9	5	0	4	+7	+4.4	15
4	Lausanne	9	4	2	3	+7	+7.5	14
5	Sion	9	4	2	3	+4	+0.3	14
6	Lugano	8	4	2	2	+3	+1.6	14
7	Basel	7	4	1	2	+7	+13.2	13
8	Zurich	9	4	1	4	-2	+3.9	13
9	Grasshoppers	8	2	3	3	+2	-4.0	9
10	Servette	8	2	3	3	-2	+0.8	9
11	Luzern	8	1	4	3	+2	+2.6	7
12	Winterthur	8	1	2	5	-5	-0.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	8	6	0	2	+6	-0.4	18
2	St. Gallen	8	5	1	2	+6	-2.3	16
3	Basel	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.7	14
4	Sion	8	3	4	1	+2	+5.2	13
5	Young Boys	9	3	3	3	-5	-6.7	12
6	Zurich	8	3	2	3	-2	-0.5	11
7	Luzern	9	3	2	4	-5	-5.6	11
8	Servette	8	3	1	4	-2	+0.5	10
9	Lugano	8	3	1	4	-4	-2.1	10
10	Lausanne	7	1	3	3	-3	-1.3	6
11	Grasshoppers	9	1	2	6	-14	-8.3	5
12	Winterthur	9	1	2	6	-19	-11.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.