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2. Bundesliga

Referee: F Badstubner

Karlsruhe

T U T S S

3–3

Full-time

Dresden

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Karlsruhe Dresden

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 32%

38%

25%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

71%

75%

Both score Ø 69%

58%

79%

Average goals

3,4

3,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

3,14 xG 1,66

49% Possession 51%

22 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Karlsruhe 8. · Dresden 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	25	15	5	5	+14	+11.4	50
2	Darmstadt	25	13	9	3	+19	+8.6	48
3	Elversberg	25	14	6	5	+18	+2.2	48
4	Paderborn	25	14	5	6	+13	+14.2	47
5	Hannover	24	13	6	5	+12	+11.1	45
6	Hertha	24	10	7	7	+5	-6.3	37
7	Kaiserslautern	25	11	4	10	+4	-2.1	37
8	Karlsruhe	24	9	6	9	-7	-16.9	33
9	Bochum	25	8	8	9	+3	+6.3	32
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	25	9	4	12	-10	-0.6	31
11	Nurnberg	25	8	6	11	-4	-0.3	30
12	Bielefeld	25	7	6	12	+2	-0.5	27
13	Preußen Münster	24	6	8	10	-7	-8.4	26
14	Braunschweig	25	7	5	13	-15	-1.8	26
15	Dresden	24	6	7	11	-6	-0.1	25
16	Holstein Kiel	25	6	7	12	-8	-14.0	25
17	Magdeburg	25	7	2	16	-13	+5.4	23
18	Greuther Furth	24	6	5	13	-20	-8.2	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	13	10	3	0	+19	+9.9	33
2	Schalke 04	12	9	2	1	+9	+6.2	29
3	Paderborn	13	8	2	3	+7	+9.4	26
4	Kaiserslautern	13	8	1	4	+10	+0.3	25
5	Elversberg	12	7	4	1	+10	+1.8	25
6	Bochum	13	6	4	3	+6	+9.8	22
7	Nurnberg	13	6	4	3	+5	+0.2	22
8	Hannover	11	6	2	3	+4	+8.5	20
9	Karlsruhe	11	6	2	3	+2	-6.6	20
10	Hertha	13	5	4	4	-1	-1.8	19
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	5	3	5	-4	-0.4	18
12	Bielefeld	12	5	2	5	+7	+7.7	17
13	Holstein Kiel	12	4	3	5	+1	-2.8	15
14	Preußen Münster	12	3	6	3	+0	-1.7	15
15	Braunschweig	13	4	3	6	-8	+2.7	15
16	Greuther Furth	12	3	4	5	-9	-4.5	13
17	Dresden	12	3	3	6	-1	+3.7	12
18	Magdeburg	12	2	1	9	-10	+5.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	13	7	4	2	+8	+2.6	25
2	Elversberg	13	7	2	4	+8	+0.4	23
3	Paderborn	12	6	3	3	+6	+4.7	21
4	Schalke 04	13	6	3	4	+5	+5.2	21
5	Hertha	11	5	3	3	+6	-4.5	18
6	Magdeburg	13	5	1	7	-3	+0.1	16
7	Darmstadt	12	3	6	3	+0	-1.3	15
8	Dresden	12	3	4	5	-5	-3.8	13
9	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	4	1	7	-6	-0.2	13
10	Karlsruhe	13	3	4	6	-9	-10.3	13
11	Kaiserslautern	12	3	3	6	-6	-2.4	12
12	Braunschweig	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.4	11
13	Preußen Münster	12	3	2	7	-7	-6.7	11
14	Bochum	12	2	4	6	-3	-3.5	10
15	Bielefeld	13	2	4	7	-5	-8.2	10
16	Holstein Kiel	13	2	4	7	-9	-11.3	10
17	Greuther Furth	12	3	1	8	-11	-3.7	10
18	Nurnberg	12	2	2	8	-9	-0.4	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.